We are pleased to inform you that our Run-of-River (RoR) and Total hydro production models for Romania and Slovenia have been upgraded and revised. The most significant improvement is the use of actual data from ENTSO-E for the daily RoR production.
The previous model concept used riverflow data scaled to monthly UCTE numbers to estimate the daily RoR (see the chart from the short term hydrology pages on MKonline below).
The new concept apply ENTSO-E data scaled to monthly UCTE numbers, which in example for Slovenia this means about10% higher values than indicated by raw ENTSO-E numbers. The forecast methods have only had minor revisions (see the chart from the short term hydrology pages on MKonline below). The other countries in the SEE area is left unchanged.
Please contact us if have any questions to the updated numbers on email@example.com.
Exclusive for MKonline users:
View this in depth analysis of the current coal market development.
You need to log on to MKonline to see the video.
If you do not subscribe to MKonline.com, apply for a free trial here.
“After a four year bear trend, the coal market has found a bottom at the beginning of 2016. Since, Perret Associates estimate that the rally has been going through 3 distinct phases, with an acceleration since June. The market is now at a critical juncture, hence the title of our video “On the edge of a cliff or on a rocket launch pad?”.
Indeed most spot coal prices are now trading significantly above their respective cost of production, meaning that the downside is not negligible. On the other hand, the Northern Hemisphere, and China in particular, are entering into the heating season with historically low coal inventories. “
Find more details by viewing our video.
Feedback would be appreciated.
The model concept
Complete Forward is the name of Mkonline’s medium term price forecast for all traded power-products in Europe, from 2 weeks up to 4 years ahead.
We use a proprietary model to forecast the entire price formation, including generator dispatch and the power flow between the interlinked power markets. At outset, Mkonline covered 4 markets, DE, FR, NL, and BE. The final aim is to offer a pan European coverage of all relevant forward markets.
Setting out the forward forecast is updated every morning, quantifying the effect of recent changes in fuel/carbon costs and latest weather forecasts on price, dispatch and exchange. In addition, each week the assumptions concerning generation capacities etc. are revised.
However, gaining experience, we aim to increase the update frequency and finally support a continuous updated forward forecasts, in line with the update frequency of our spot forecasts.
Follow the upgrades of Complete Forward here
What is shown?
So far Complete Forward offers the following forecast and data monitoring pages:
- Price by Products (Price forecast for each relevant product, comparison to market – bull/bear signal, shift in forecast, SRMC of gas and coal), see chart below
- Power Balance (comprehensive overview of demand and supply forecast aggregated by generation category)
- Exchange (Total exchange and exchange by country)
- Assumptions (Overview of exogenous input and capacity assumptions)
Some comments on the model
The forward model was developed in a sophisticated commercial simulation environment. It features unit commitment and economic dispatch of comprehensive thermal-based power systems. The model utilizes a broad data input, ranging from daily updated fundamental forecasts to generator specific technical parameters, including:
- Weather-driven fundamentals based on MKonline’s W2F system (Weather-To-Fundamental) system.
- Fuel and emission costs, currency exchange rate.
- Cross-border capacity assumptions.
- Available generation capacity based on Urgent Market Messages (UMM) and maintenance plans.
- Detailed description of each power plant by means of technical parameters and constraints (e.g., plant efficiency, max capacity, minimum stable level, ramping rate, cost variables). At outset the system entails about 1000 plants.
- Cross-border flow – to and from – adjoining market that are not yet included in the model. At outset these were, UK, ES, IT, CH, AT, PL, CZ, DK1, DK2, SE4, and NO2).
If you have any questions, feel free to send an email to
Eylert Ellefsen – Head of Continental Analysis
Example of Price Table Germany – temporary simulation
MKonline have updated all hydrological normals for Norway based on an updated description of the hydropower system, using the latest available information from NVE. This information includes a lot of new smaller hydro power plants modeled in great detail.
We use the statistical normal period 1967 -2011 to describe the hydropower potential, where the period 1981-2010 match the reference period applied by NVE. New hydro production units, until the end of Q2 2016, have increased the production level with 2 TWh. Thus, the average production capacity for Norway is now set to 130 TWh/year, instead of the previous 128 TWh/year. The data from NVE include an update of total hydro reservoir capacity in Norway. The level is now lifted to 86.5 TWh. We use these new figures to adjust official data for inflow and reservoir data, since the official measured data only represent 82.2 TWh.
In addition, our precipitation and inflow models have been increased to match the production capacity of 130 TWh/year. We aim to update our hydrological normals each year during September in order to use the latest available information about the hydropower system.
If you have further questions, please contact firstname.lastname@example.org
During the past 2 weeks we have seen a strengthening of the French power market prices for Q4-16 and Q1-17. The increase follows news of expected French nuclear outages during the upcoming winter season.
In concrete: The nuclear generation targets have been adjusted to about 385 TWh for 2016 and 400 TWh for 2017 and 2018. This represents about 20 TWh lower generation than previously assumed.
These targets represents even lower capacity levels than currently announced, and we see a potential reduction of 4000-5000 MWh/h during Q4/Q1 than announced from RTE. See chart below, and the 2016-2017 target assumption from us.
The price effect on this information has been huge for French market, Q1-17 price has been lifted by nearly 15 €/MWh (+ 35%) since start of September. The strong French market has influenced rest of the CWE-markets, see the EEX-DE line in the chart. EEX-DE has been lifted by nearly 5 €/MWh, but a part of this is also fuel-related.
MKonline has updated our price models with the reduced French nuclear availability, and we saw a huge lift in the simulations too.
You can see more on our CWE FWD webpages. We will follow the situation and update the models on new nuclear information.
Feedback woudl be appreciated.
Head of Contintental Analysis
Complete Forward is a large model concept that contains an abundance of details. Furthermore, we add small and large upgrades frequently.
We have set up this blog post to facilitate project transparency. It contains dates for changes, what’s updated and why, as well as short explanations for the changes.
We have added some links to MKonline. If you do not have access to the page, please feel free to apply for a free trial here.
List of updates
- Pending Launched downloadable files on our DataCenter.
- 19.10.16 Official launch data sett to 1.November
- 29.09.16 Heads up: New Forward to be launch
The September edition of MKonline’s Long-term price forecast for Nordic power is set for release on Thursday 15 September.
Focus areas in the September 2016 edition
- Evaluation of Swedish renewables target 2021-2030, potential impact for nuclear capacity
- Chinese cut in coal mining and coal-fired generation, consequences for coal price perspectives
- Revised long term CO2 price expectations, mainly due to Europe’s progress in meeting its 2030 climate commitment
Continue reading LTP September 2016 edition
This summer, French nuclear available capacity experienced the lowest values seen during the past 4 years.
In July, French nuclear production was running at 38.0 GW in average, meaning only 60% of the installed capacity. This was significantly lower compared to July last year when the production averaged 70.6% of the total installed capacity.
Continue reading French Nuclear Capacity July 2016
The Croatian wind forecast has been too low for a while. We corrected the error and refitted the model.
The wind production in HR represented about 2.6% of the total net electricity generation in 2014, according to Eurostat. For 2016 MKonline’s forecast for the installed wind capacity in HR is at 523MW. The installed capacity development for the next years can be found on MKonline under Wind Power>Capacity Assumptions.
As of today we have also extended our forecasts for fundamentals and prices to 32 days ahead for HR, RS and BG. All forecasts are delivered with full ensemble. If you do not subscribe to MKonline.com apply for a free trial here.
For the countries for which actual generation data is available, you can check the model performance under the Track Record pages. These pages will be published as well for HR as soon as the actual wind and solar data is available.
If you have any questions, feel free to send an email to email@example.com.
We aim to strengthen our capacity and expertise in automatic testing and deployment as well as operation of IT infrastructure. You will have a key role in our development and operation’s organisation, helping to maintain an efficient and high up-time requirement.
You will also contribute to adapt, develop and streamline our operational processes.
Continue reading Open position: DevOps