Phasing out the Conventional Forward model for DE & FR

MKonline will phase out its Conventional Forward model for the continental areas Germany and France.
Since 2011 the Conventional Forward model for Germany and France has delivered reliable results for our forward analysis. However, we believe that we can further enrich our analysis with the new Complete Forward model, which allows coverage of more price areas, consistent handling of cross-border flows and more frequent updates. Here you find more details about the model concept. Please feel free to contact us for more information.

Continue reading Phasing out the Conventional Forward model for DE & FR

China reverses coal supply cuts – significant consequences for European power markets

Reduced risk of coal supply shortage

Chinese authorities have now allowed all coal mines to return to 330 operational days per year again for the rest of this winter, following the previous reduction to 276 days per year from April 2016 onwards. The 20% increase of operational days will curb the price lift in coal markets and reduce the risk of coal supply shortage for coming winter months in China and also for the rest of the world.

Continue reading China reverses coal supply cuts – significant consequences for European power markets

Updated hydropower models for Bulgaria

We are pleased to inform that we have updated our hydropower models for Bulgaria (BG). The implementation includes a new Run-of-River and Total production model and a revised Inflow model. The improvements are obtained from applying actual data from ENTSO-E and new river flow data for the inflow calculations.

Continue reading Updated hydropower models for Bulgaria

French spot prices week 45 lower than estimated due to bearish weather

In our blog of Nov 3rd, we focused on the traded prices for Week 45 (Week Ahead), which had reached an all-time high of 253 €/MWh (Base price). The weather outlook was at that time quite bullish, with Peak load consumption in the first of the week increasing nearly 10 GW compared to the end of week 44. Spot-prices Thursday/Friday week 44 came out at about 70.00/85.00 €/MWh (Daily Base/Peak) and meant an additional bullish signal to the market.

Continue reading French spot prices week 45 lower than estimated due to bearish weather

Advent Calendar Contest 2016

MKonline features a calendar contest between 1st – 23rd of December 2016.

You participate simply by entering your guesstimate of the DayAhead Base spot price for different price areas/countries.

All persons with an MKonline account may attend!
Press here if you want to attend but lack access to MKonline.com

On the 1st of December  a calendar section will appear in the right corner of MKonline’s Power section.  You may register and change  your bet any time before 11 CET each work day. Note: we have taken great care to safeguard your submitted information, see more info on this beneath.

Every day we will change the price areas. In this way participating in the contest offers a splendid opportunity to get to know spot price areas in Europe, which you usually do not follow. We will put in areas as far apart as Portugal, Romania, and Finland. Few persons keep a keen eye on all price areas in Europe. Therefore, MKonline offers free access to Instant Spot for the duration of the calendar contest. Feel free to contact us for more information on InstantSpot.

Continue reading Advent Calendar Contest 2016

Actual hydropower data for CEE now available

We are pleased to inform that actual hydropower data for all countries in the CEE region have been added to MKonline. This marks the first step towards our goal of introducing hydrological models for the region. We expect this work to be started next year.

All countries in the CEE area (Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia) include Run-of-River, Reservoir and Total production. Pumping production is represented for all countries, except Hungary. Pumping consumption is only available for Czech Republic. The data are based on ENTSO-E numbers.

Data from Czech Republic have been available for some time at MKonline, however these data have been adjusted. The new implementation revealed that our previous estimate for Run-of-River production was erroneous and in fact was closer to the current total production.

Please contact us if have any questions to the updated numbers on support@mkonline.com.

WeekAhead prices for France hit all-time high

In our blog of October 31st we gave an update on the strained nuclear situation in France. The nuclear capacity is currently 6000 – 7000 MW lower than in a normal situation by the start of November.

Power supply is threatened in week 45

We have observed that spot prices have increased significantly during October, and already the start of last week we saw peak load prices at about 100 €/MWh, see chart below which includes neighbouring countries as well. Continue reading WeekAhead prices for France hit all-time high

French nuclear situation getting even worse

In our blog of Sep. 30th we focused on the extraordinary French nuclear situation as several reactors was offline due to extraordinary security checks.

The nuclear situation has escalated during October due to additional security checks and several extended ongoing outages. Currently there are 19 French reactors on outage. Continue reading French nuclear situation getting even worse

Updated hydropower models for RO and SI

We are pleased to inform you that our Run-of-River (RoR) and Total hydro production models for Romania and Slovenia have been upgraded and revised. The most significant improvement is the use of actual data from ENTSO-E for the daily RoR production.

The previous model concept used riverflow data scaled to monthly UCTE numbers to estimate the daily RoR (see the chart from the short term hydrology pages on MKonline below).

Slovenia-OldROR

The new concept apply ENTSO-E data scaled to monthly UCTE numbers, which in example for Slovenia this means about10% higher values than indicated by raw ENTSO-E numbers. The forecast methods have only had minor revisions (see the chart from the short term hydrology pages on MKonline below). The other countries in the SEE area are left unchanged.

Slovenia-NewROR

Please contact us if have any questions to the updated numbers on support@mkonline.com.

Coal prices: On the edge of a cliff or on a rocket launch pad?

Exclusive for MKonline users:
View this in depth analysis of the current coal market development.
You need to log on to MKonline to see the video.
If you do not subscribe to MKonline.com,  apply for a free trial here.

Background

“After a four year bear trend, the coal market has found a bottom at the beginning of 2016. Since, Perret Associates estimate that the rally has been going through 3 distinct phases, with an acceleration since June. The market is now at a critical juncture, hence the title of our video “On the edge of a cliff or on a rocket launch pad?”.

Indeed most spot coal prices are now trading significantly above their respective cost of production, meaning that the downside is not negligible. On the other hand, the Northern Hemisphere, and China in particular, are entering into the heating season with historically low coal inventories. “

Find more details by viewing our video.

Feedback would be appreciated.