Spot prices are currently increasing heavily in the SEE area as the hydropower situation is getting extremely scarce these days. The weather outlooks are dry too, so this situation will at least persist towards the first part of February. We already published a blog story of the situation and focused on hydrology/hydropower and market prices (Spot/FWD). Continue reading Spiking SEE spot prices and extremely low hydropower levels
In our blog of Dec 16th, we focused on the extremely low snow levels in the Alps. In some locations, it has been observed close to all-time low snow levels the past 80-100 years. There was a similar situation in December 2015, but during January and February, the situation improved a lot due to torrential rains- and snowfall across the Alpine region. Current outlooks for 2017 are different, there has so been no improvement in the snow situation and present cold outlook results in strongly reduced hydro-reservoirs as well. Continue reading Outlooks for CWE hydropower production 2017 strongly reduced due to low snowlevels
1. Fundamental overview
The power supply situation in France is strongly threatened as peak hour consumption will increase by about 15 GW next week
as temperatures drop 10-1 deg. C from today’s level. Temperatures next week will then be nearly 10 deg. C below normal.
In the process of making new hydrological normals for elspot areas instead of regions in Norway and Sweden, we have done another controlled simulation with the EMPS model and simulated new reservoir normals. Continue reading CHANGING RESERVOIR NORMALS
4th lowest level in 80 years observed
The snow levels are low in most parts of the Alpine region these days according to snow curves at MKonline. In Switzerland, there has been made an observation at a 2400m altitude that confirms the 4th lowest in the past 80 years!
The snow levels across the CWE-region are currently 12 – 13 TWh lower than normal, see snow curves from MKonline below. The snow levels were very low last year too, but the situation improved strongly during Q1-16. The question is, will this happen again?
METANOPOLY has launched its new daily forward report where we provide you with a forecast for the most important five curve contracts of NCG.
While having you provided already with these forecasts on a weekly base in our weekly report, we update this from now on on a daily base. The weekly report remains as an additional forward forecast including a thorough comment on the most important fundamentals and markets and takes a closer focus on the most important events, which have happened the last week and might haven the following week. The daily report provides you with a daily comment on the German gas market and a forecast for the next 10 trading days for NCG front month, front quarter, front quarter+1, front quarter+2 and front calendar year.
Feel free to contact firstname.lastname@example.org for a free trial, or email@example.com in case of questions about the forward report.
MKonline will phase out its Conventional Forward model for the continental areas Germany and France.
Since 2011 the Conventional Forward model for Germany and France has delivered reliable results for our forward analysis. However, we believe that we can further enrich our analysis with the new Complete Forward model, which allows coverage of more price areas, consistent handling of cross-border flows and more frequent updates. Here you find more details about the model concept. Please feel free to contact us for more information.
Reduced risk of coal supply shortage
Chinese authorities have now allowed all coal mines to return to 330 operational days per year again for the rest of this winter, following the previous reduction to 276 days per year from April 2016 onwards. The 20% increase of operational days will curb the price lift in coal markets and reduce the risk of coal supply shortage for coming winter months in China and also for the rest of the world.
We are pleased to inform that we have updated our hydropower models for Bulgaria (BG). The implementation includes a new Run-of-River and Total production model and a revised Inflow model. The improvements are obtained from applying actual data from ENTSO-E and new river flow data for the inflow calculations.
In our blog of Nov 3rd, we focused on the traded prices for Week 45 (Week Ahead), which had reached an all-time high of 253 €/MWh (Base price). The weather outlook was at that time quite bullish, with Peak load consumption in the first of the week increasing nearly 10 GW compared to the end of week 44. Spot-prices Thursday/Friday week 44 came out at about 70.00/85.00 €/MWh (Daily Base/Peak) and meant an additional bullish signal to the market.