In our latest publication of the EMPS model, we have changed the number of price intervals (“Prisavsnitt”)from 6 to 12. A price interval is a set of hours that are treated as similar within a week, to simplify the linear problem when running a simulation. This could be i.e night hours on a working day, 3-4 hours during the afternoon peak etc.
Increasing the number of price intervals from 6 to 12, means that we now have a better way to simulate the daily and weekly profiles on consumption most importantly, but it also enables us to better simulate the daily profile of solar power.
The new time resolution has been used in the latest EMPS run, and also in the hourly data center files EMPS details. With the improved time granulation, the daily and weekly load profiles are better simulated and the exchange towards DE and NL is much better simulated, as these countries price will vary a lot during the day dependent on wind and solar.
As you can see from the chart below, the new resolution of the week enables us to much better simulate the 168 hours of the week, than we able to do before with only 6 price intervals.
The price effect from the change is quite limited in the larger picture as the water values haven’t changed a lot. The main effect is that the winter products (Q4 and Q1) increase by 0.8 €, while the summer products are unchanged. The yearly change as a consequence is an increase of 0.4 €.
Within the weeks and within the different climatic scenarios, the variations will be larger. Below you will see 3 price charts for week 39 this year, and a winter week and a summer week next year, to see the difference in the hourly prices simulated in the new and old model.
Below you will see the old and the new price intervals used in the model
Old model with 6 price intervals:
New model with 12 price intervals:
As of Monday, 14th August 2017 we changed the underlying contracts for our Nordic Technical Analysis. We use the new Nasdaq Nordic Power Futures for analyzing the technical signals of front and second front quarters and calendar contracts. Since the old NordPool Forwards were loosing on liquidity and the traded volumes went down as the most market players switched for the new Power Futures, we decided to use the latter.
Markedskraft – MKonline is to arrange a debate during Arendalsuka, titled ‘How will the future power market look like?’.
The debate features MKonline analysts and is hosted on the new roof terrace of Markedskraft, Tuesday 15th of August 2017, 6 pm till 8 pm. The debate will discuss how the Nordic power market some years ahead is affected by climate policy, technological improvements for power management and cable links from the Nordic Countries to Central/Northwest Europe.
Click here for more information (in Norwegian)
MKonline has updated the LTP Nordic Countries report at 15 June 2017, 12 pm
Some important factors being focused on are:
- Macron election victory to impact power balances in Northwestern Europe from the mid-20s
- Revised coal demand perspectives
- Our wind power generation prognosis for the Nordic Countries after 2030 revise
Download (PDF, 645KB)
Are you interested in our LTP report?
Click here and get a callback from our sales team.
The effect of Holy Month of Ramadan included into the consumption model for Turkey
The upcoming festival of Ramadan starts on the 25th of June this year, and it is one of the most important months in the Islamic calendar. MKonline’s estimated consumption during this month will decrease in average of about 26% compared to normal assumptions. Continue reading Month of Ramadan
In the latest publication of the EMPS model, we have now introduced the wind module purchased from SINTEF. This module has several advantages that will make the price forecasts more accurate. Continue reading New wind module introduced in the EMPS model
We collect Urgent Market Messages (UMM) which are typically text messages published on various formats by different sources. We started with NordPool and EEX. The information content has been converted to a complete downloadable time series database on hourly resolution on different aggregation levels.
Continue reading Changelog UMMs
The hydrological models at Mkonline have so far been based on Statnett-regions in Norway and four geographical regions in Sweden. The goal for Mkonline has for a while been to establish all our hydrological models on price-zone levels as we do for all other fundamental data. Continue reading Mkonline has introduced hydrological models for pricezones Norway+Sweden