Category Archives: CO2

LTP September 2016 edition

The September edition of MKonline’s Long-term price forecast for Nordic power is set for release on Thursday 15 September.

Focus areas in the September 2016 edition

  • Evaluation of Swedish renewables target 2021-2030, potential impact for nuclear capacity
  • Chinese cut in coal mining and coal-fired generation, consequences for coal price perspectives
  • Revised long term CO2 price expectations, mainly due to Europe’s progress in meeting its 2030 climate commitment

Continue reading LTP September 2016 edition

The European steel crisis to impact EU ETS soon

Steel is by far the largest direct CO2 emitter in EU ETS, and a major power consumer. So far this year, there has been a rather sideways growth, as January-October production has come out 0.7% below the same period last year. September and October have been particular weak months, both having near 4% negative growth year-on-year, and we expect negative growth in November and December to occur as well. We calculate the 2015 emissions to come out 2 Mt below the 2014 level.

Continue reading The European steel crisis to impact EU ETS soon

LTP Nordic 2015-2040 update on Tuesday 15 September

The September edition of MKonline’s Long Term Price Forecast for Nordic Power is set for release on Tuesday 15 September.

Main topics

  • Oil price collapses having implications for the energy complex and industrial developments in Europe
  • Slowing Chinese economic growth affecting European energy markets, particularly coal market perspectives
  • Revised perspectives on impact on Nordic power consumption from electrification of transport sectors and data storage centers

Continue reading LTP Nordic 2015-2040 update on Tuesday 15 September

Monthly CO2 video published

In the beginning of every month we will publish a video showing our view on the short term perspectives of the CO2 market. Factors of major focus as well as the status for front year emissions from industry and power/heat will be discussed.

Finally, comments about the EUA price development will be made.

The first monthly video was published on Tuesday 1 September 2015. (This video is only available for CO2 subscribers.)


Publication of Technical Analysis reports

We have changed the publication scheme of Technical Analysis reports. The updates for fuels, emissions and currency (Coal, Oil, CO2 and the EUR/USD exchange rate) are now available for the following areas: NP, CWE, CEE, IT, SEE, IB and UK. Thus we acknowledge the importance of these commodities for the markets all over Europe. The power contracts (front and second front quarters and calendar contracts) traded on the NASDAQ OMX are available in the NP area of MKonline (SE, NO, FI and DK). Reports for the power futures traded on the EPEX/EEX are available within the CWE section (DE, FR, AT, CH, NL and BE). See Power > Technical

Changes to our CO2 pages

We have reorganized the menu structure at our CO2 pages slightly. The ‘Analysis’ section provides our overview of price expectations with daily and weekly reports, while the ‘Fundamentals’ section discloses our view of the development in emissions and long term balance development.

As we recognize the important impact that industry sectors have on total emissions, we have added an overview of emissions from steel, cement and petroleum refining installations covered by EU ETS. In addition to giving an account of the historical development, we will monitor the development in these sectors. A long term recovery in these sectors may prove crucial in order to keep up carbon prices.

CO2 on MKonline:


Why we changed our emission forecast for 2014

In this video, Espen Andreassen and Olav Johan Botnen guides you through assumptions for our emissions forecast for 2014. The key points are:

  • A mild winter and spring has lead to significant power consumption declines in Central/North Western Europe
  • The sanctions against Russia is expected to hamper European industrial activity in the coming months/years

Watch the video presentation below (5 minutes). Maximize to full screen for best viewer experience by pressing the icon in the lower right corner.