Category Archives: Coal & Freight

China reverses coal supply cuts – significant consequences for European power markets

Reduced risk of coal supply shortage

Chinese authorities have now allowed all coal mines to return to 330 operational days per year again for the rest of this winter, following the previous reduction to 276 days per year from April 2016 onwards. The 20% increase of operational days will curb the price lift in coal markets and reduce the risk of coal supply shortage for coming winter months in China and also for the rest of the world.

Continue reading China reverses coal supply cuts – significant consequences for European power markets

Coal prices: On the edge of a cliff or on a rocket launch pad?

Exclusive for MKonline users:
View this in depth analysis of the current coal market development.
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Background

“After a four year bear trend, the coal market has found a bottom at the beginning of 2016. Since, Perret Associates estimate that the rally has been going through 3 distinct phases, with an acceleration since June. The market is now at a critical juncture, hence the title of our video “On the edge of a cliff or on a rocket launch pad?”.

Indeed most spot coal prices are now trading significantly above their respective cost of production, meaning that the downside is not negligible. On the other hand, the Northern Hemisphere, and China in particular, are entering into the heating season with historically low coal inventories. “

Find more details by viewing our video.

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Video Interview with G. Perret on the Coal Market

The Long Term Price Forecast – Steam Coal & Freight is to be updated on 3 September 2015.

To shorten the waiting time, please watch the following interview with Guillaume Perret, Dr Sharath Rao and Dr Nikola Casule addressing coal market related issues.

If you want to know more about this product, please visit the product page on MKonline, Long Term Price Forecast – Steam Coal and Freight or contact sales@mkonline.com.

Continue reading Video Interview with G. Perret on the Coal Market

Publication of Technical Analysis reports

We have changed the publication scheme of Technical Analysis reports. The updates for fuels, emissions and currency (Coal, Oil, CO2 and the EUR/USD exchange rate) are now available for the following areas: NP, CWE, CEE, IT, SEE, IB and UK. Thus we acknowledge the importance of these commodities for the markets all over Europe. The power contracts (front and second front quarters and calendar contracts) traded on the NASDAQ OMX are available in the NP area of MKonline (SE, NO, FI and DK). Reports for the power futures traded on the EPEX/EEX are available within the CWE section (DE, FR, AT, CH, NL and BE). See Power > Technical

Coal & Freight – Long Term Price Forecast, January update

The first Long Term Price Forecast – Steam Coal & Freight update for 2015 is set to be released on Thursday 12 February. As with the other updates, the report may be found on the Coal & Freight section on MKonline once it’s published.

Some noteworthy bullet points for this release:

  • Seaborne steam coal market ended 2014 with a surplus of 15m tonnes
  • At current price levels, we envisage a rebalancing of supply and demand as early as 2015
  • Potential theoretical supply shortage from 2016 onwards
  • Severe drop in the cost of production for most exporting countries due to currency movements and the fall in oil prices
  • US mining industry faces headwinds with sharp reduction in exports

If you want to know more about this product, please visit the product page on MKonline, Long Term Price Forecast – Steam Coal and Freight, or contact sales@mkonline.com.

Continue reading Coal & Freight – Long Term Price Forecast, January update

US electricity generation forecast

The US are a significant swing coal exporter, in particular for Europe. The quantity of coal available for exports is directly linked to the quantity of coal used domestically, which itself depends on the dynamics of the broader domestic energy complex. The consultancy Perret Associates has started to forecast the US coal-fired, gas-fired and hydro electricity generation on a 3-month-ahead basis. This forecast will help us to anticipate US coal exports, in particular to Europe in the medium term.

Items available:

  •  US coal-fired generation, historical monthly data since 2003 and a 3-month-ahead forecast.
  •  US gas-fired generation, historical data since 2003 and a 3-month-ahead forecast.
  •  US hydro generation, historical data since 2003 and a 3-month-ahead forecast.

If you do not have access, please apply for a free trial here.

 

Coal inventories available for download

As part of the continuous improvement of our analysis, the consultancy Perret Associates has now made relevant coal inventories data at main ports and delivery points worldwide available.

Below you can find a comprehensive list of the inventories available which go as far back as 2008 for instance for ARA. In some cases, we are also processing the raw data. This is the case for Indian power plants, for which we are also producing “like-for-like” inventories, which refer to stocks that we have been monitoring at the same power plants since 2010. Indeed as India is adding significant new coal-fired capacity each year, the analysis of total stocks is biased as it is based on an increasing number of power stations.

Items available

Weekly:

  •  Coal stocks at ARA terminals (EMO and OBA) since 2008
  •  Coal stocks at main Chinese ports since 2009
  •  Coal stocks at Newcastle Port since 2009
  •  Coal stocks at Indian power plants (total and like-for-like) since 2009

Monthly:

  •  Coal inventories at UK power plants since 1995
  •  Richards Bay Coal Stocks since 2006
  •  US coal stocks per sector (electric power sector, producers and distributors, end user sector) since January 2000

If you do not have access, please apply for a free trial here.

Improved Coal and Freight Analysis

MKOnline and Perret Associates continuously strive to improve every aspect of our analysis. Several improvements have been made to the Coal and Freight Analysis lately, among which the most notable are probably the inclusion of additional information and analysis on China, India and Indonesia, directly relevant to the European market. We also actively follow and comment on trading volumes and spreads.

Continue reading Improved Coal and Freight Analysis