Spot prices are currently increasing heavily in the SEE area as the hydropower situation is getting extremely scarce these days. The weather outlooks are dry too, so this situation will at least persist towards the first part of February. We already published a blog story of the situation and focused on hydrology/hydropower and market prices (Spot/FWD). Continue reading Spiking SEE spot prices and extremely low hydropower levels
In our blog of Dec 16th, we focused on the extremely low snow levels in the Alps. In some locations, it has been observed close to all-time low snow levels the past 80-100 years. There was a similar situation in December 2015, but during January and February, the situation improved a lot due to torrential rains- and snowfall across the Alpine region. Current outlooks for 2017 are different, there has so been no improvement in the snow situation and present cold outlook results in strongly reduced hydro-reservoirs as well. Continue reading Outlooks for CWE hydropower production 2017 strongly reduced due to low snowlevels
1. Fundamental overview
The power supply situation in France is strongly threatened as peak hour consumption will increase by about 15 GW next week
as temperatures drop 10-1 deg. C from today’s level. Temperatures next week will then be nearly 10 deg. C below normal.
4th lowest level in 80 years observed
The snow levels are low in most parts of the Alpine region these days according to snow curves at MKonline. In Switzerland, there has been made an observation at a 2400m altitude that confirms the 4th lowest in the past 80 years!
The snow levels across the CWE-region are currently 12 – 13 TWh lower than normal, see snow curves from MKonline below. The snow levels were very low last year too, but the situation improved strongly during Q1-16. The question is, will this happen again?
MKonline will phase out its Conventional Forward model for the continental areas Germany and France.
Since 2011 the Conventional Forward model for Germany and France has delivered reliable results for our forward analysis. However, we believe that we can further enrich our analysis with the new Complete Forward model, which allows coverage of more price areas, consistent handling of cross-border flows and more frequent updates. Here you find more details about the model concept. Please feel free to contact us for more information.
We are pleased to inform that we have updated our hydropower models for Bulgaria (BG). The implementation includes a new Run-of-River and Total production model and a revised Inflow model. The improvements are obtained from applying actual data from ENTSO-E and new river flow data for the inflow calculations.
In our blog of Nov 3rd, we focused on the traded prices for Week 45 (Week Ahead), which had reached an all-time high of 253 €/MWh (Base price). The weather outlook was at that time quite bullish, with Peak load consumption in the first of the week increasing nearly 10 GW compared to the end of week 44. Spot-prices Thursday/Friday week 44 came out at about 70.00/85.00 €/MWh (Daily Base/Peak) and meant an additional bullish signal to the market.
MKonline features a calendar contest between 1st – 23rd of December 2016.
You participate simply by entering your guesstimate of the DayAhead Base spot price for different price areas/countries.
All persons with an MKonline account may attend!
Press here if you want to attend but lack access to MKonline.com
On the 1st of December a calendar section will appear in the right corner of MKonline’s Power section. You may register and change your bet any time before 11 CET each work day. Note: we have taken great care to safeguard your submitted information, see more info on this beneath.
Every day we will change the price areas. In this way participating in the contest offers a splendid opportunity to get to know spot price areas in Europe, which you usually do not follow. We will put in areas as far apart as Portugal, Romania, and Finland. Few persons keep a keen eye on all price areas in Europe. Therefore, MKonline offers free access to Instant Spot for the duration of the calendar contest. Feel free to contact us for more information on InstantSpot.
We are pleased to inform that actual hydropower data for all countries in the CEE region have been added to MKonline. This marks the first step towards our goal of introducing hydrological models for the region. We expect this work to be started next year.
All countries in the CEE area (Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia) include Run-of-River, Reservoir and Total production. Pumping production is represented for all countries, except Hungary. Pumping consumption is only available for Czech Republic. The data are based on ENTSO-E numbers.
Data from Czech Republic have been available for some time at MKonline, however these data have been adjusted. The new implementation revealed that our previous estimate for Run-of-River production was erroneous and in fact was closer to the current total production.
Please contact us if have any questions to the updated numbers on email@example.com.