Category Archives: Exchange and Flow

Phasing out the Conventional Forward model for DE & FR

MKonline will phase out its Conventional Forward model for the continental areas Germany and France.
Since 2011 the Conventional Forward model for Germany and France has delivered reliable results for our forward analysis. However, we believe that we can further enrich our analysis with the new Complete Forward model, which allows coverage of more price areas, consistent handling of cross-border flows and more frequent updates. Here you find more details about the model concept. Please feel free to contact us for more information.

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Advent Calendar Contest 2016

MKonline features a calendar contest between 1st – 23rd of December 2016.

You participate simply by entering your guesstimate of the DayAhead Base spot price for different price areas/countries.

All persons with an MKonline account may attend!
Press here if you want to attend but lack access to MKonline.com

On the 1st of December  a calendar section will appear in the right corner of MKonline’s Power section.  You may register and change  your bet any time before 11 CET each work day. Note: we have taken great care to safeguard your submitted information, see more info on this beneath.

Every day we will change the price areas. In this way participating in the contest offers a splendid opportunity to get to know spot price areas in Europe, which you usually do not follow. We will put in areas as far apart as Portugal, Romania, and Finland. Few persons keep a keen eye on all price areas in Europe. Therefore, MKonline offers free access to Instant Spot for the duration of the calendar contest. Feel free to contact us for more information on InstantSpot.

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Extremely low hydropower situation in the SEE area

The hydropower situation in the SEE area is currently extremely reduced compared to a normal situation. Amid a dry and hot summer period the flow rates in the Danube has hardly touched normal level since end of June, see chart below showing flow rate at Calafat/Iron Gate in weekly resolution.

Continue reading Extremely low hydropower situation in the SEE area

Outage of the Italian-Greek interconnector and positive commercial flow

According to the common statement of the both – Italian (Terna) and Greek (Admie) – TSOs, a technical problem located in the undersea part of the cable is currently affecting the IT-GR interconnector. The failure is not expected to be fixed until the end of the year. Accordingly, we reduced our forecast for the available transfer capacity of the link to zero. However, the commercial flow values reported are unequal zero what in the visualization on MKonline might be perceived as an error.

positive commercial flow_1

In fact, neither daily nor monthly capacities can be allocated, since monthly auctions have been canceled and no daily actions are being performed. Only the long-term capacities already allocated are handled by the Joint Auction Office (JAO). Hence, the actual flow unequal zero reported on the MKOnline pages is correct.

LTP Nordic 2015-2040 update on Tuesday 15 September

The September edition of MKonline’s Long Term Price Forecast for Nordic Power is set for release on Tuesday 15 September.

Main topics

  • Oil price collapses having implications for the energy complex and industrial developments in Europe
  • Slowing Chinese economic growth affecting European energy markets, particularly coal market perspectives
  • Revised perspectives on impact on Nordic power consumption from electrification of transport sectors and data storage centers

Continue reading LTP Nordic 2015-2040 update on Tuesday 15 September

Flow-based market coupling gives significant lower Dutch spot prices

Flow-based market coupling was introduced on 20 May in the CWE region. MKonline has previously published blog posts on the topic:

In this report we will focus on observed changes in prices and border flow since 20 May. We have selected the Dutch spot market,  border flow and price differences towards Germany.

Parallel runs of flow-based market coupling since 2013 indicated that the Dutch spot prices (APX) were expected to be reduced by about 2.5 €/MWh compared to the previous ATC spot settlement. It was also expected that imports from Germany would increase and consequently narrow the price difference between APX and Phelix prices.

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Adding Status overview on Border Flow and Capacities

Please be informed that we have added status overview sfor border flow and capacities. The pages are available under:

Background

Our analysis and price forecasting activity clearly demonstrate the importance of keeping track of power flow and capacity. However, this is complicated and very laborious.

For some time we have worked on a concept on how to share this information with our customers. With the introduction of a “Border Status” page, we hope to fill a part of the information gap left by the incomplete or erroneous transparency data.

About the page

The page simply shows a matrix of the interconnected markets and status. To the far right you may switch between the 4 different variables covered by the overview page.

  1. Commercial Exchange
  2. Net Transfer Capacity
  3. Market Coupling Flow
  4. Available Transfer Capacity
 BorderStatus_1

About the scope of what we do

Currently MKonline monitors 50+ interconnected price areas for 4 different variants of flow and capacities. For the capacities one has both import and export. We distinguish between actual and synthetic data. Furthermore, we monitor and frequently override the forecasts made by the TSOs, when our analysts view the TSO data to be “not feasible” or not attainable. In such cases we employ our forecasts.

Of course, our system may introduce errors too. But, predominately we have incomplete data in this field or even lack it because the sources experience technical errors, and/or incorrect or out of date data not being correct or timely updated. Adding an “old favorite”, TSO changing source/URL without prior notice, we seldom register a flawless status.

We can only regret this and work to mitigate the operation disturbances this may cause.

InstantSpot – Implementation of the flow-based CWE price settlement

Within our InstantSpot system we implemented changes related to the today’s introduction of the flow-based CWE price settlement. The first delivery is 21 May. Since the number of allowed solutions is higher than in the traditional ATC approach the utilization of the border capacities will be higher.

This is visible for all affected borders: BE-FR, BE-NL, DE-FR and DE-NL. Taking an example of the Franco-German border, we see that the German export to France during the coming weekend is for the most hours exceeding the NTC.

FlowBased exceeding NTCt

The consequences are of interest, not only for the power flow itself, but also for the price picture. In general we can say that higher export to the more expensive France implies German prices to be forecasted on higher levels compared to the solution within the former ATC approach. The effect for France is opposite so that the price difference between these two markets is estimated to be lower after the introduction of the new flow-based solution.

We aim to include more details in our presentations, e.g. the FB constraints as they are reported by CASC. We will keep you posted!

See also the blog post from 18 May to get insight into the FB – ATC price statistics.