Spot prices are currently increasing heavily in the SEE area as the hydropower situation is getting extremely scarce these days. The weather outlooks are dry too, so this situation will at least persist towards the first part of February. We already published a blog story of the situation and focused on hydrology/hydropower and market prices (Spot/FWD). Continue reading Spiking SEE spot prices and extremely low hydropower levels
1. Fundamental overview
The power supply situation in France is strongly threatened as peak hour consumption will increase by about 15 GW next week
as temperatures drop 10-1 deg. C from today’s level. Temperatures next week will then be nearly 10 deg. C below normal.
4th lowest level in 80 years observed
The snow levels are low in most parts of the Alpine region these days according to snow curves at MKonline. In Switzerland, there has been made an observation at a 2400m altitude that confirms the 4th lowest in the past 80 years!
The snow levels across the CWE-region are currently 12 – 13 TWh lower than normal, see snow curves from MKonline below. The snow levels were very low last year too, but the situation improved strongly during Q1-16. The question is, will this happen again?
We are pleased to inform that we have updated our hydropower models for Bulgaria (BG). The implementation includes a new Run-of-River and Total production model and a revised Inflow model. The improvements are obtained from applying actual data from ENTSO-E and new river flow data for the inflow calculations.
In our blog of Nov 3rd, we focused on the traded prices for Week 45 (Week Ahead), which had reached an all-time high of 253 €/MWh (Base price). The weather outlook was at that time quite bullish, with Peak load consumption in the first of the week increasing nearly 10 GW compared to the end of week 44. Spot-prices Thursday/Friday week 44 came out at about 70.00/85.00 €/MWh (Daily Base/Peak) and meant an additional bullish signal to the market.
We are pleased to inform that actual hydropower data for all countries in the CEE region have been added to MKonline. This marks the first step towards our goal of introducing hydrological models for the region. We expect this work to be started next year.
All countries in the CEE area (Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia) include Run-of-River, Reservoir and Total production. Pumping production is represented for all countries, except Hungary. Pumping consumption is only available for Czech Republic. The data are based on ENTSO-E numbers.
Data from Czech Republic have been available for some time at MKonline, however these data have been adjusted. The new implementation revealed that our previous estimate for Run-of-River production was erroneous and in fact was closer to the current total production.
Please contact us if have any questions to the updated numbers on firstname.lastname@example.org.
In our blog of October 31st we gave an update on the strained nuclear situation in France. The nuclear capacity is currently 6000 – 7000 MW lower than in a normal situation by the start of November.
Power supply is threatened in week 45
We have observed that spot prices have increased significantly during October, and already the start of last week we saw peak load prices at about 100 €/MWh, see chart below which includes neighbouring countries as well. Continue reading WeekAhead prices for France hit all-time high
In our blog of Sep. 30th we focused on the extraordinary French nuclear situation as several reactors was offline due to extraordinary security checks.
The nuclear situation has escalated during October due to additional security checks and several extended ongoing outages. Currently there are 19 French reactors on outage. Continue reading French nuclear situation getting even worse
During the past 2 weeks we have seen a strengthening of the French power market prices for Q4-16 and Q1-17. The increase follows news of expected French nuclear outages during the upcoming winter season.
In concrete: The nuclear generation targets have been adjusted to about 385 TWh for 2016 and 400 TWh for 2017 and 2018. This represents about 20 TWh lower generation than previously assumed.
These targets represents even lower capacity levels than currently announced, and we see a potential reduction of 4000-5000 MWh/h during Q4/Q1 than announced from RTE. See chart below, and the 2016-2017 target assumption from us.
The price effect on this information has been huge for French market, Q1-17 price has been lifted by nearly 15 €/MWh (+ 35%) since start of September. The strong French market has influenced rest of the CWE-markets, see the EEX-DE line in the chart. EEX-DE has been lifted by nearly 5 €/MWh, but a part of this is also fuel-related.
MKonline has updated our price models with the reduced French nuclear availability, and we saw a huge lift in the simulations too.
You can see more on our CWE FWD webpages. We will follow the situation and update the models on new nuclear information.
Feedback woudl be appreciated.
Head of Contintental Analysis
This summer, French nuclear available capacity experienced the lowest values seen during the past 4 years.
In July, French nuclear production was running at 38.0 GW in average, meaning only 60% of the installed capacity. This was significantly lower compared to July last year when the production averaged 70.6% of the total installed capacity.