Category Archives: Hydrology

Spiking SEE spot prices and extremely low hydropower levels

Spot prices are currently increasing heavily in the SEE area as the hydropower situation is getting extremely scarce these days. The weather outlooks are dry too, so this situation will at least persist towards the first part of February. We already published a blog story of the situation and focused on hydrology/hydropower and market prices (Spot/FWD). Continue reading Spiking SEE spot prices and extremely low hydropower levels

Outlooks for CWE hydropower production 2017 strongly reduced due to low snowlevels

In our blog of Dec 16th, we focused on the extremely low snow levels in the Alps. In some locations, it has been observed close to all-time low snow levels the past 80-100 years. There was a similar situation in December 2015, but during January and February, the situation improved a lot due to torrential rains- and snowfall across the Alpine region. Current outlooks for 2017 are different, there has so been no improvement in the snow situation and present cold outlook results in strongly reduced hydro-reservoirs as well. Continue reading Outlooks for CWE hydropower production 2017 strongly reduced due to low snowlevels

Extremely low snow levels in the Alps

 4th lowest level in 80 years observed

The snow levels are low in most parts of the Alpine region these days according to snow curves at MKonline. In Switzerland, there has been made an observation at a 2400m altitude that confirms the 4th lowest in the past 80 years!

The snow levels across the CWE-region are currently 12 – 13 TWh lower than normal, see snow curves from MKonline below. The snow levels were very low last year too, but the situation improved strongly during Q1-16. The question is, will this happen again?

Continue reading Extremely low snow levels in the Alps

Updated hydropower models for Bulgaria

We are pleased to inform that we have updated our hydropower models for Bulgaria (BG). The implementation includes a new Run-of-River and Total production model and a revised Inflow model. The improvements are obtained from applying actual data from ENTSO-E and new river flow data for the inflow calculations.

Continue reading Updated hydropower models for Bulgaria

Actual hydropower data for CEE now available

We are pleased to inform that actual hydropower data for all countries in the CEE region have been added to MKonline. This marks the first step towards our goal of introducing hydrological models for the region. We expect this work to be started next year.

All countries in the CEE area (Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia) include Run-of-River, Reservoir and Total production. Pumping production is represented for all countries, except Hungary. Pumping consumption is only available for Czech Republic. The data are based on ENTSO-E numbers.

Data from Czech Republic have been available for some time at MKonline, however these data have been adjusted. The new implementation revealed that our previous estimate for Run-of-River production was erroneous and in fact was closer to the current total production.

Please contact us if have any questions to the updated numbers on support@mkonline.com.

Updated hydropower models for RO and SI

We are pleased to inform you that our Run-of-River (RoR) and Total hydro production models for Romania and Slovenia have been upgraded and revised. The most significant improvement is the use of actual data from ENTSO-E for the daily RoR production.

The previous model concept used riverflow data scaled to monthly UCTE numbers to estimate the daily RoR (see the chart from the short term hydrology pages on MKonline below).

Slovenia-OldROR

The new concept apply ENTSO-E data scaled to monthly UCTE numbers, which in example for Slovenia this means about10% higher values than indicated by raw ENTSO-E numbers. The forecast methods have only had minor revisions (see the chart from the short term hydrology pages on MKonline below). The other countries in the SEE area are left unchanged.

Slovenia-NewROR

Please contact us if have any questions to the updated numbers on support@mkonline.com.

Updated Hydrological Normals for Norway

MKonline have updated all hydrological normals for Norway based on an updated description of the hydropower system, using the latest available information from NVE. This information includes a lot of new smaller hydro power plants modeled in great detail.

We use the statistical normal period 1967 -2011 to describe the hydropower potential, where the period 1981-2010 match the reference period applied by NVE. New hydro production units, until the end of Q2 2016, have increased the production level with 2 TWh. Thus, the average production capacity for Norway is now set to 130 TWh/year, instead of the previous 128 TWh/year. The data from NVE include an update of total hydro reservoir capacity in Norway. The level is now lifted to 86.5 TWh. We use these new figures to adjust official data for inflow and reservoir data, since the official measured data only represent 82.2 TWh.

In addition, our precipitation and inflow models have been increased to match the production capacity of 130 TWh/year.  We aim to update our hydrological normals each year during September in order to use the latest available information about the hydropower system.

If you have further questions, please contact support@mkonline.com

Extremely low hydropower situation in the SEE area

The hydropower situation in the SEE area is currently extremely reduced compared to a normal situation. Amid a dry and hot summer period the flow rates in the Danube has hardly touched normal level since end of June, see chart below showing flow rate at Calafat/Iron Gate in weekly resolution.

Continue reading Extremely low hydropower situation in the SEE area