In our latest publication of the EMPS model, we have changed the number of price intervals (“Prisavsnitt”)from 6 to 12. A price interval is a set of hours that are treated as similar within a week, to simplify the linear problem when running a simulation. This could be i.e night hours on a working day, 3-4 hours during the afternoon peak etc. Continue reading Improved time resolution in the EMPS model
In the latest publication of the EMPS model, we have now introduced the wind module purchased from SINTEF. This module has several advantages that will make the price forecasts more accurate. Continue reading New wind module introduced in the EMPS model
During January we posted two blogs commenting the low hydrological situation in the Alps as precipitation in December came out at the driest level for several decades across CWE and the Alpine region. The precipitation deficit regarding energy meant nearly 13 TWh, so the snow package was extremely low by New Year. The situation did not improve during January which was icy and dry, and deficit in snow and groundwater was even more severe by the end of January. Continue reading Alpine snow and groundwater levels still below normal
Spot prices are currently increasing heavily in the SEE area as the hydropower situation is getting extremely scarce these days. The weather outlooks are dry too, so this situation will at least persist towards the first part of February. We already published a blog story of the situation and focused on hydrology/hydropower and market prices (Spot/FWD). Continue reading Spiking SEE spot prices and extremely low hydropower levels
MKonline will phase out its Conventional Forward model for the continental areas Germany and France.
Since 2011 the Conventional Forward model for Germany and France has delivered reliable results for our forward analysis. However, we believe that we can further enrich our analysis with the new Complete Forward model, which allows coverage of more price areas, consistent handling of cross-border flows and more frequent updates. Here you find more details about the model concept. Please feel free to contact us for more information.
In our blog of Nov 3rd, we focused on the traded prices for Week 45 (Week Ahead), which had reached an all-time high of 253 €/MWh (Base price). The weather outlook was at that time quite bullish, with Peak load consumption in the first of the week increasing nearly 10 GW compared to the end of week 44. Spot-prices Thursday/Friday week 44 came out at about 70.00/85.00 €/MWh (Daily Base/Peak) and meant an additional bullish signal to the market.
MKonline features a calendar contest between 1st – 23rd of December 2016.
You participate simply by entering your guesstimate of the DayAhead Base spot price for different price areas/countries.
All persons with an MKonline account may attend!
Press here if you want to attend but lack access to MKonline.com
On the 1st of December a calendar section will appear in the right corner of MKonline’s Power section. You may register and change your bet any time before 11 CET each work day. Note: we have taken great care to safeguard your submitted information, see more info on this beneath.
Every day we will change the price areas. In this way participating in the contest offers a splendid opportunity to get to know spot price areas in Europe, which you usually do not follow. We will put in areas as far apart as Portugal, Romania, and Finland. Few persons keep a keen eye on all price areas in Europe. Therefore, MKonline offers free access to Instant Spot for the duration of the calendar contest. Feel free to contact us for more information on InstantSpot.
In our blog of October 31st we gave an update on the strained nuclear situation in France. The nuclear capacity is currently 6000 – 7000 MW lower than in a normal situation by the start of November.
Power supply is threatened in week 45
We have observed that spot prices have increased significantly during October, and already the start of last week we saw peak load prices at about 100 €/MWh, see chart below which includes neighbouring countries as well. Continue reading WeekAhead prices for France hit all-time high
Complete Forward is a large model concept that contains an abundance of details. Furthermore, we add small and large upgrades frequently.
We have set up this blog post to facilitate project transparency. It contains dates for changes, what’s updated and why, as well as short explanations for the changes.
We have added some links to MKonline. If you do not have access to the page, please feel free to apply for a free trial here.
List of updates
- Pending Launched downloadable files on our DataCenter.
- 19.10.16 Official launch data sett to 1.November
- 29.09.16 Heads up: New Forward to be launch
We are proud to announce that MKonline introduces a brand new system for medium term forecasting. We expect to launch for test users during the week
starting with 24.October 1.November 2016.
Beyond forecasting power prices for all traded power-products, the system also offer comprehensive forecasts for all fundamentals and power flow to adjoining markets.
We start by covering the markets for DE, FR, NL, and BE. However, we are committed to add more countries soon. Our end goal is to offer a pan European coverage of forward markets, similar to what we offer with InstantSpot.
A detailed description of the model will follow in a later blog post.
Do I need to change my work habit?
Not at all! For a period, we will run the current forward model, named Conventional Forward, in parallel with the new one. In due time we will announce shut down date for the Conventional Forward model, starting with DE and FR in December. This will ease the transition for you and allow us time to complete the presentation build for the new forward product.
Note however, in order to distinguish the two models we have renamed the current Forward to “Conventional Forward” and name the new product “Complete Forward”. The name is chosen simply because the new system offers forecast not only on prices but on a broad field of variables linked to price formation.
Model update, every day
The new forward pages are updated every morning, quantifying the effect of recent changes in fuel costs and latest weather forecasts on price, dispatch and exchange. In addition, each week the assumptions concerning production capacities etc are revised factored in to the forecast.
However, gaining experience, we aim to increase the update frequency and finally support a continuous updated forward picture for Europe, in line with the update frequency of our spot forecasts.
What is shown?
As we set out, Complete Forward offers four new web pages. However, in line with MKonline’s strive to develop we will extend the content substantially and also improve on the initial pages. The four new pages are:
Price by products (Price forecast for each relevant product, calculation of difference to market (bull/bear signal) , shift in forecast and marginal fuel cost)
Power Balance (Comprehensive overview of the power mix, demand and power exchange)
Exchange (Net total exchange and exchange by country, Monthly resolution )
Assumptions (Overview of exogenous input to the model)
What to expect from us?
As indicated, the four countries covered and new web pages included at the outset is only the beginning. We aim to keep you updated on changes and additional services we make for Complete Forward on a dedicated changelog.
Feedback would be appreciated.