Starting on 13rd of March ECMWF Ensemble forecasts are disseminated 40 minutes earlier. Continue reading Ensemble forecasts disseminated 40 minutes earlier
4th lowest level in 80 years observed
The snow levels are low in most parts of the Alpine region these days according to snow curves at MKonline. In Switzerland, there has been made an observation at a 2400m altitude that confirms the 4th lowest in the past 80 years!
The snow levels across the CWE-region are currently 12 – 13 TWh lower than normal, see snow curves from MKonline below. The snow levels were very low last year too, but the situation improved strongly during Q1-16. The question is, will this happen again?
We are proud to announce that we have extended our forecasts for weather and fundamentals to 32 days lead time. All forecasts are delivered with full ensemble.
For a test period this information is made available for free and embedded in the page Price 32 Days. See below for more details on where to find it.
About the forecasts
The new fundamental forecasts are powered by the ECMWF 32-day weather forecasts. Simply put, we translate the 32-day weather forecast for e.g temperatures, precipitation, wind speed, radiation, etc. into MWh/h for all weather driven variables. The underlying fundamental models are identical to the well-known models used on MKonline.
Where to find the 32-day forecasts
For a period, the new weather and fundamental forecasts will only be available on the pages where we provide price forecasts 32 days ahead. See the following examples NP, DE and PL. If you do not subscribe to MKonline.com, apply for a free trial here.
But of course, we plan to set up comprehensive presentations and make the data downloadable, in the same way we present the ECMWF 10- and 15-day lead time.
Please note that the data for the 32-day forecasts are downloadable directly from the graphs.
More than standard fundamentals
Beside the traditional weather driven fundamentals and weather, you will also find forecasts on power flow on these pages, as well as price forecasts.
All variables viewed together provide a unique insight and understanding of the fundamental balance and volatility as a function of weather, available transfer capacity and relative prices in Europe.
The page is updated every day. But please observe the nuances:
- Tuesday and Friday, at 05:20.
Updated weather forecasts from ECMWF are made available for us Tuesday and Friday morning. Hence, the web pages are updated with new weather, new fundamentals and finally new spot forecasts Tuesday and Friday at 05:20. A ticker will notify you.
- Daily update at 7:20
You will notice that the pages are updated every day. This is done to facilitate the inclusion of shifts in non-weather-driven variables into the price forecasts. Not that the Power Flow will shift on these updates, hence affecting the power balance.
What to expect
The 32-day forecast is still in its early utilisation. We plan to add pages for e.g. each variable, make the data available in easy-to-download files, benchmark etc.
We will keep you posted!
Feedback is appreciated!
In week 27 Europe experienced its first summer heat wave with temperatures up to 10.6 °C above the seasonal normal for Germany. As a consequence most river temperatures increased significantly. In the graph below the forecasted and actual temperatures of the Rhine (station Koblenz) are depicted, which show very good agreement for the last months. In comparison to the end of June the temperature of the Rhine rose by 7.2 °C with temperature values slightly above 26 °C between 5-7 July. These are temperatures very close to the critical level (26-28 °C for Germany) at which power plants using river water for cooling purposes must shave output due to environmental regulations.
In the last days river temperatures have been decreasing, though they are expecting to hit 26 °C again towards the end of July. Thus, monitoring river temperatures remains important in order to anticipate possible power reductions. The river temperature forecasts for the CWE region, which are updated daily on MKonline, can be found here: https://www.mkonline.com/in/#tab/power/278/1.
By Carsten Trapp
River temperatures may hit critical level on the continent by next week .
We see a strong high pressure ridge to hit the continent by next week. Power markets have already reacted upward on these outlooks. The estimated consumption in Germany and France grew by 2 GW due to an increased cooling demand. This has a certain effect on the spot prices in combination with rather low wind and strong solar production in such heatwave situations. The most important factor is the potential reduction of production capacity due to river temperatures reaching the critical level of about 26 °C.
In short it can be said that 26 °C is an environmental and biological level where thermal power plants no longer are allowed to increase temperatures in the rivers from their cooling water outlet, even as this is a local phenomenon. When this level is reached, they have to close down the plant or reduce the output.
If you look at the chart below, you can see today’s temperature forecast for Germany, coming close to 25 °C by next weekend. Notice that this is the daily average.
Forecast for river temperatures, see our forecast for the Rhine (Rheinfelden) and the Rhone (Lyon) of today. This is copied from MKonline , see https://www.mkonline.com/in/#tab/power/278/3.
Temperatures do not seem to hit the 26 °C level in the Rhine, but the Rhone by Lyon seems too close to critical level.
These forecasted river temperatures show that there is an obvious risk for reduced output from thermal plants during the next two weeks. We will update our river temperature-forecasts every day on MKonline, and the situation will also be followed up in the spot-forecasts.
The last heatwave over the CWE-area happened on 30/31 July 2013. You can see how the prices and temperatures came out in this period by using the archive-function on MKonline.
Head of Continental Analysis
MKonline has already established W2F-modelling of Turkey. W2F is an abbreviation for Weather-2-Fundamentals, and covers normally temperatures, consumption, wind power and solar production. Most of these fundamentals are already established for Turkey. MKonline is now happy to announce that as a first part of hydropower modelling for Turkey, we are launching a model for precipitation energy.
Following customers requests, we have started to publish all 51 ensemble runs in the Data Center.
At this round we added 4 variables: Temperature, Consumption, Photovoltaic, and Residual Load (Con-Wnd-SPV). Later we will add many more ensemble forecasts, such as Precipitation Energy, Price, Exchange, Hydrology and many more.
How to find data?
MKonline covers all of Europe (except Iceland and Ireland) in all price areas/areas 57. How can you find the data?
Simply go to the Data Center, place your cursor in the search field (top left corner) and type in the name of the price area/country and variable you are looking for. The system filters it out as you write.
Let us assume you search for Ensemble Switzerland. 2-3 letters in each word would filter out the files for you. We have also included some predefined filters, see on the left side of the Data Center.
Update and Structure of the files
The files follow the updated schedule for the ECMWF forecast and contain the two latest ensemble forecasts. The file will rotate in order that the first 51 columns always contain the most recent ensemble forecast, whether this is EC00 or EC12.
Each file contains only one variable for one price area, as indicated in the Ensemble Switzerland example.
In order to avoid any confusion regarding the data’s freshness, there is a row above the column names containing the issue date of the data.
Measured as consumption weighted temperature 2014 is by mid September the warmest year in the NordPool areas since 1980. This is revealed by MKonline Power Climate pages where summed deviation to normal temperature is depicted. Last week the deviation hit 63 degrees, almost 12 degrees higher than the number for 2004, which keep the 35 year record with a deviation at 65 degrees over a year.
Warm in all price areas in NP
Browsing through the different price areas reveal only moderate deviation from this picture, except for NO3 where our numbers indicate an unseasonal cold late spring and summer season.
So what is the effect on consumption?
So far the high temperatures is embedded in consumption too with a total deviation to normal of almost 6,5 TWh, by Sept 19. However, this is still 1,1 TWh behind the weather year of 1985, which, if It had repeated it selves this year, would have resulted in an even larger deviation, 7,6 TWh by Sept 19th. Even though 1985 was accumulated colder, (by this time) most of the unseasonal cold weather materialised during the heating season, causing a cet. par larger drop in heating demand, than what we have seen so far in 2014.