Tag Archives: coal

China reverses coal supply cuts – significant consequences for European power markets

Reduced risk of coal supply shortage

Chinese authorities have now allowed all coal mines to return to 330 operational days per year again for the rest of this winter, following the previous reduction to 276 days per year from April 2016 onwards. The 20% increase of operational days will curb the price lift in coal markets and reduce the risk of coal supply shortage for coming winter months in China and also for the rest of the world.

Continue reading China reverses coal supply cuts – significant consequences for European power markets

US electricity generation forecast

The US are a significant swing coal exporter, in particular for Europe. The quantity of coal available for exports is directly linked to the quantity of coal used domestically, which itself depends on the dynamics of the broader domestic energy complex. The consultancy Perret Associates has started to forecast the US coal-fired, gas-fired and hydro electricity generation on a 3-month-ahead basis. This forecast will help us to anticipate US coal exports, in particular to Europe in the medium term.

Items available:

  •  US coal-fired generation, historical monthly data since 2003 and a 3-month-ahead forecast.
  •  US gas-fired generation, historical data since 2003 and a 3-month-ahead forecast.
  •  US hydro generation, historical data since 2003 and a 3-month-ahead forecast.

If you do not have access, please apply for a free trial here.

 

Coal inventories available for download

As part of the continuous improvement of our analysis, the consultancy Perret Associates has now made relevant coal inventories data at main ports and delivery points worldwide available.

Below you can find a comprehensive list of the inventories available which go as far back as 2008 for instance for ARA. In some cases, we are also processing the raw data. This is the case for Indian power plants, for which we are also producing “like-for-like” inventories, which refer to stocks that we have been monitoring at the same power plants since 2010. Indeed as India is adding significant new coal-fired capacity each year, the analysis of total stocks is biased as it is based on an increasing number of power stations.

Items available

Weekly:

  •  Coal stocks at ARA terminals (EMO and OBA) since 2008
  •  Coal stocks at main Chinese ports since 2009
  •  Coal stocks at Newcastle Port since 2009
  •  Coal stocks at Indian power plants (total and like-for-like) since 2009

Monthly:

  •  Coal inventories at UK power plants since 1995
  •  Richards Bay Coal Stocks since 2006
  •  US coal stocks per sector (electric power sector, producers and distributors, end user sector) since January 2000

If you do not have access, please apply for a free trial here.

LTP Nordic 2014-2035 update on Friday June 13th

The June edition of MKonline’s Long Term Price Forecast for Nordic Power is set for release on Friday June 13th.

Main updates in the June edition

  • New global coal market perspectives resulting in new expectations to coal prices
  • Changed long term power balance perspectives in surrounding price areas, with new assessments of UK and Netherlands
  • Presentation of results from recently developed integration of Baltic countries in our Nordic price simulations

Continue reading LTP Nordic 2014-2035 update on Friday June 13th