In December and January, the power demand is mostly affected by holidays around religious celebrations. We have recently updated our assumptions on the holiday effect for all areas for the upcoming Christmas and New Year feasts and have put together some statistics and facts you might find useful. Continue reading Holiday Effect for Christmas and New Year
During this summer we have updated the actual installed capacities for wind and SPV for all countries.
We have also updated the growth assumptions for wind, solar and consumption and extended these assumptions on MKonline until 2025. You can find this information under Capacity Assumptions and Normal Assumptions Pages. Continue reading Fundamentals growth assumptions prolonged up to 2025
The effect of Holy Month of Ramadan included into the consumption model for Turkey
The upcoming festival of Ramadan starts on the 25th of June this year, and it is one of the most important months in the Islamic calendar. MKonline’s estimated consumption during this month will decrease in average of about 26% compared to normal assumptions. Continue reading Month of Ramadan
We collect Urgent Market Messages (UMM) which are typically text messages published on various formats by different sources. We started with NordPool and EEX. The information content has been converted to a complete downloadable time series database on hourly resolution on different aggregation levels.
This spring we are re-estimating the consumption model for all countries. As a result, we have both added and changed some model variables.
What does Easter mean consumption-wise?
Easter is not only an important religious holiday and a traditional vacation season in Europe. It is also one of the periods of the year during which the power consumption is strongly affected by the Holiday Effect. The social patterns are different from country to country and reflect a variety of habits and traditions. For us, the upcoming Easter is also a moment to reconsider assumptions made within our consumption system and represented by the reduction of power demand attributable to different behavioural patterns. You find some statistics and useful facts below. Continue reading Holiday effect for Easter
MKonline has now updated actual consumption numbers for 2016. The numbers are as earlier based on monthly statistics from ENTSO-E, but as the format for these monthly reports has been changed from previous years, MKonline has delayed the updates as we have found some deviations in the statistics compared to earlier years. Continue reading Updated German consumption numbers for 2016
In our blog of Nov 3rd, we focused on the traded prices for Week 45 (Week Ahead), which had reached an all-time high of 253 €/MWh (Base price). The weather outlook was at that time quite bullish, with Peak load consumption in the first of the week increasing nearly 10 GW compared to the end of week 44. Spot-prices Thursday/Friday week 44 came out at about 70.00/85.00 €/MWh (Daily Base/Peak) and meant an additional bullish signal to the market.
Easter is not only an important religious holiday and a traditional vacation season in Europe. It is also one of the periods of the year during which the power consumption is strongly affected by the Holiday Effect. The social patterns are different from country to country and reflect a variety of habits and traditions. For us the upcoming Easter is also a moment to reconsider assumptions made within our consumption system and represented by the reduction of power demand attributable to different behavioural patterns. You find some statistics below. Enjoy!
The highest total and relative impact
The highest absolute reduction of consumption due to the Holiday Effect can be observed in Germany, where from 24 March (Maundy Thursday) until 28 March (Easter Monday) 1048 GWh less electricity will be consumed in total. This number contributes to an average of 43,7 GWh/h and 15,1% of normal German consumption during this period. In the “competition” of total consumption reduction Germany is followed by Spain (total reduction of 461 GWh) and Italy (303 GWh). In terms of relative reduction, the second biggest effect is observable in Spain (13,1% of normal) and the third biggest in Denmark (11,9% of normal consumption).
This week we received information that led us to revise the German consumption for 2014 up 6 TWh. This will shift the synthetic data (current MKonline actuals) and simulated normals.
Note that it will also shift the current forecast levels.
We hope to have completed the shifts by tomorrow morning.
We will get back to you on this later.
Cause and effect from adjusted 14 numbers
The monthly consumption data from ENTSO-E for the period Jan-14 until April-15 has been updated.
The data shows an increase of about 6 TWh for 2014 compared to the previous MKonline-data. The graph depicts old and new raw data from ENTSO. Further, it shows the previous MKonline data, which correspond to our synthetic numbers, as they were prior to the change.
The previous MKonline data have been scaled up for H1-2014 as the previous ENTSO-data seemed to be too low, which has reduced the gap to the new ENTSO-data for 2014.
We saw also for 2013 a huge shift in the revised ENTSO-data, and we will now check the new ENTSO-numbers .
MKonline is furthermore working with updating the future consumption growth until 2020 based on the latest ENTSO-E data.
We will keep you informed as soon as the new updates have been finalised.
Head of Continental Analysis