Please be advised that we have re-estimated the consumption models for France, Belgium and the Netherlands.
What changed with the new model?
The model work indicates that the consumption dependency on weather has increased, partly considerably. Most important for power demand derived from the need for heating and cooling. See illustration for Belgium beneath. However, the combined effect from low temperatures and wind – we have coined it WindChill effect -has also increased.
Increase cooling capacity has a distinct tendency to develop stepwise. The high temperatures experienced during 2014, together with improved economy, might have added to both installed capacity, and willingness to run the already installed cooling units.
Power demand derived from the need for artificial light has declined some, compared to the old models. Although not scientifically tested, the latter is in line with what we would expect from the introduction of power saving light bulbs seen over the last few years in Europe. Introduction of power saving light bulbs might also help explain higher sensitivity to lower temperatures.
With the new models we also expect better fit for social pattern in consumption, e.g. vacation and holidays, and bridging. Note that the social pattern tends to change gradually, or occasionally abrupt, following legislative shifts.
As expected, all models and its parameters improved significantly, although we enlarged the training period. Beside better methodology and model formulation, an important reason , we believe, is that we upgraded our data monitoring system for consumption in January 2015. Better consumption numbers, with less statistical noise, now spills over into reduced error margins in the estimated models.
The analyst team look forward to upgrading the consumption models for other price areas too.
Feedback is appreciated