Tag Archives: data

New Consumption model in Germany

On Friday 23 January, we aim to update our historic data and implement a new consumption model in Germany.

Background

Power load in Germany is an elusive variable . Not because one lacks sources but because of poor updates and internally inconsistent sources. This could be e.g. hourly numbers not summing up to aggregates over months or years, or summing up individual TSOs to national numbers. Another known issue is that they do not meet simple econometrical criteria one would expect from such data, e.g. sign of derivatives etc.

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Consumption upgrade under way

The consumption model upgrade is completed.

Please be advised that we have started to upgrade the consumption numbers and rerun our forecast models and re-simulate the normals. It will take some hours before all forecasts are reissued. For background see this blog.

The table beneath shows the status and progress. Click on the links to see the discrepancy between old and new numbers or be directed to the forecast for the area of interest.

Diff. old and new data Progress Comment
NordPool OK after EC12 21 January We need some days to bring these pages in sync:

  • Normal assumptions
  • Derivatives
  • Climate
CWE Expect to issue new data and upgrade the consumption model Friday 23 January after spot nominations
CEE OK after EC12 22 January
IT OK after EC12 22 January
SEE OK after EC12 22 January
IB OK after EC12 22 January
BLT OK after EC12 21 January
UK OK after EC12 22 January
TR Pending

Further, we need some days to bring these pages in sync:

  • Normal assumptions
  • Derivatives
  • Climate

Feedback to support@mkonline.com  would be  appreciated.

Problems with exchange data

Changelog:

  • 20 February 2015: We have completed the implementation of new sources for the NTC and  actual commercial flow for almost all borders. We are only missing this information for the PL-UA and SK-UA borders.  We are working to find and implement new sources for these missing sources as soon as possible.
  • 29 January 2015: The transition to the new ENTSO-E pages has been completed for the NetTransferCapacity values. We are still missing actual NTC values for some external borders and we are working to find and implement new sources.
  • 27 January 2015: All borders with market coupling flow have been revised and new sources have been implemented for the missing flows and Available Transfer Capacities.
  • 20 January 2015:  All borders from to Spain is restored for NetTransferCapacity, AvailableTransferCapacity, Commercial flow and physical flow is fixed and implemented.
  • 11 February 2015:  Commercial flow on borders to Austria, France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Romania, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Serbia, Slovenia, Albania and Turkey is completed. Note that the flow on some borders change since the “Day ahead” commercial flow published on the old Entso-E page included intraday, while we exclude it on MKonline. The borders affected by removing intraday trading are: SI-AT, SI-HR, SI-IT, AT-CZ, AT-HU, RS-HU and RS-HR.
  • 13 February 2015: Commercial flow on borders to Poland and the Czech Republic completed. The borders CZ-DE and CZ-SK included intraday trading on the old Entso-E platform, therefore the flow will change a bit.

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Price and Flow in same file

MKonline supports data files from its InstantSpot model with forecasts of both power price and  power flow to all adjoining markets each 15 minute. See here for details.

The naming, updating and rolling over of alternative forecast may seem complicated. If you are only interested in the latest forecast you find this positioned to the far left in file.

Updating of the files

The InstantSpot model is simulated more or less each 15 minutes as input arrives over the day. At the same time both the web and the files in the DataCenter are updated too. The following figure illustrates the connection between arrival and updating of the weather and fundamentals forecasts, (W2F), the IS model, and the rotation of the files in the DataCenter.

W2F and IS update_1

Format of the files

We supports 6 alternative forecasts for each individual price area. The latest two alternative forecasts are always positioned to  the left. The naming of the alternatives follows the naming convention used on the the ECMWF weather forecast, Eg. EC00Det, EC00Ens, etc. In addition to this we have a separate forecast, issued after the arrival of the actual spot. We have coined this PostFix, and amend PF in the naming to indicate this.

Note that for each forecast alternative, there are several columns depending on how many borders a country exchanges power with.

Rotating time and names of the alternative price-flow forecasts

Rotating Latest forecasts Second last forecasts Third last forecasts
00:00 – 06:40 EC12Det Y’d EC12Ens Y’d EC00Det PF Y’d EC00Ens PF Y’d EC00Det Y’d EC00Ens PF Y’d
6:41 – 15:00 EC00Det 6:41 EC00Ens 8:40 EC12Det Y’d EC12Ens Y’d EC00Det PF Y’d EC00Ens PF Y’d
15:00 – 18:40 EC00Det PF 15:00 EC00Ens PF 15:00 EC00Det ≈12:00 EC00Ens ≈12:00 EC12Det Y’d EC12Ens Y’d
18:40 – 00:00 EC12Det 18:40 EC12Ens 20:40 EC00DetPF ≈18:40 EC00EnsPF ≈18:40 EC00Det ≈12:00 EC00Ens ≈12:00

Y’d indicates files generated yesterday. Time stamps, in column 2 and 3, e.g. 8:41 CET, indicates when we start to update the file in question. Time stamp in the 4 last columns e.g. 12:00 CET indicates last update time for the file in question. PF is an abbreviation for the PostFix update. PostFix indicates the forecast alternative we offer after spot has arrived.

Step by step procedure

06:40 CET            The EC00 deterministic W2F forecast start to come in. IS EC00Det starts running and is rotated together with EC00Ens to the left in the Data Center Files. EC00Ens columns are empty.

08:00 CET             The EC00Det W2F forecast is complete. The IS EC00Det continues to update as more information about exchange etc. are updated.

08:40 CET             The EC00Ens W2F forecast start to come in. IS EC00Ens starts running and the EC00Ens columns in the Data Center fill up.

10:00 CET             The EC00Ens W2F forecast is complete. IS EC00Det and IS EC00Ens continue running.

12:00 CE(S)T       Deadline for spot nominations. IS EC00Det and IS EC00Ens stop running and the final time stamp is just before noon.

12-15 CET(S)       Break for the Instant Spot. Our analysts update some of the input to the model.

15:00 CET(S)T     IS EC00Det and Ens Postfix start running. Both forecasts are rotated to the left in the Data Center files.

18:40 CET             The EC12 deterministic weather forecast start to come in. IS EC12Det start running and is rotated together with EC12Ens to the left in the Data Center Files. EC12Ens columns are empty.

20:00 CET             The EC12Det weather forecast is complete. The IS EC12Det continues to update as more information about exchange etc. are updated.

20:40 CET             The EC12Ens W2F forecast start to come in. IS EC12Ens starts running and the EC12Ens columns in the Data Center fill up.

22:00 CET             The EC12Ens W2F forecast is complete. IS EC12Det and IS EC12Ens continue running.

00:00 CET(S)T     The Data Center files are republished with the same data as before, but we amend Y to the names to indicate that the forecasts are issued “Yesterday”.

German “Balancing Energy Market” available on MKonline

The balancing energy market analysis (Ausgleichsenergie) intends to provide an overview of the current market situation. Unpublished balancing prices of the last days are estimated and the main price drivers are presented to support users in making trading decisions on the day-back/day-after market or to evaluate their balancing positions.

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German “Minutes reserve market” available on MKonline

The analysis for the control reserve market (Regelenergie) on MKonline currently covers the minutes reserve market for negative and positive products in Germany. An analysis for the secondary control reserve is under development.

The analysis utilizes fundamental and stochastic price drivers as well as simulation methodologies to forecast both capacity and energy prices for the coming two weeks. In addition, the MKonline pages structure the complex control reserve data and provide a general overview of the market situation.

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