In our latest publication of the EMPS model, we have changed the number of price intervals (“Prisavsnitt”)from 6 to 12. A price interval is a set of hours that are treated as similar within a week, to simplify the linear problem when running a simulation. This could be i.e night hours on a working day, 3-4 hours during the afternoon peak etc. Continue reading Improved time resolution in the EMPS model
In the latest publication of the EMPS model, we have now introduced the wind module purchased from SINTEF. This module has several advantages that will make the price forecasts more accurate. Continue reading New wind module introduced in the EMPS model
The hydrological models at Mkonline have so far been based on Statnett-regions in Norway and four geographical regions in Sweden. The goal for Mkonline has for a while been to establish all our hydrological models on price-zone levels as we do for all other fundamental data. Continue reading Mkonline has introduced hydrological models for pricezones Norway+Sweden
Please be informed that we have added a new page: EMPS scenarios.
From time to time our analysts observe interesting features in the market. MKonline commands an EMPS model that enables us to make stress tests and “What if analysis “. This page will be the location for such information.
We aim to update the EMPS Scenario page whenever we observe interesting “market cases”. At each incident we will update the page and forward a mail to customers of our Nordic Forward products.
More information and details on the page will follow in the weeks to come.
Our last report of this power plant was published 19th of December where we estimated average production for Q1 to be about 430 MW. The actual average level for Q1-14 came out somewhat higher than our simulated production at 475 MW. An updated production and reservoir forecast for the rest of 2014 has been made based on our EMPS-model. Inflow scenarios are below normal throughout the melting period as snow is lower than seasonal normal for this catchment area. On the other hand we do see higher hydro reservoir than normal for end of week 14.
Download the report as a PDF
Get the full report here: MKonline_Expectations_Sima_2014-april.pdf.
There are uncertainties around when Olkiluoto 3 is ready to start. We therefore want to test out the sensitivity in the EMPS-model with postponed start up. Our base EMPS scenario (last published Wednesday 15th of January) we expect Olkiluoto 3 gradual online from April 2016. We also expect 6 weeks annual outage during YR-17.
Download report here (login is required).