Tag Archives: Exchange

Heads up: New forward product to be launched

We are proud to announce that MKonline introduces a brand new system for medium term forecasting. We expect to launch for test users during the week starting with 24.October 1.November 2016.

Beyond forecasting power prices for all traded power-products, the system also offer comprehensive forecasts for all fundamentals and power flow to adjoining markets.

We start by covering the markets for DE, FR, NL, and BE. However, we are committed to add more countries soon. Our end goal is to offer a pan European coverage of forward markets, similar to what we offer with InstantSpot.

A detailed description of the model will follow in a later blog post.

Do I need to change my work habit?

Not at all! For a period, we will run the current forward model, named Conventional Forward,  in parallel with the new one. In due time we will announce shut down date for the Conventional Forward model, starting with DE and FR in December. This will ease the transition for you and allow us time to complete the presentation build for the new forward product.

Note however, in order to distinguish the two models we have renamed the current Forward to “Conventional Forward” and name the new product “Complete Forward”. The name is chosen simply because the new system offers forecast not only on prices but on a broad field of variables linked to price formation.

Model update, every day

The new forward pages are updated every morning, quantifying the effect of recent changes in fuel costs and latest weather forecasts on price, dispatch and exchange. In addition, each week the assumptions concerning production capacities etc are revised factored in to the forecast.

However, gaining experience, we aim to increase the update frequency and finally support a continuous updated forward picture for Europe, in line with the update frequency of our spot forecasts.

What is shown?

As we set out, Complete Forward offers four new web pages. However, in line with MKonline’s strive to develop we will extend the content substantially and also improve on the initial pages. The four new pages are:

Price by products (Price forecast for each relevant product, calculation of difference to market (bull/bear signal) , shift in forecast and marginal fuel cost)
Power Balance (Comprehensive overview of the power mix, demand and power exchange)
Exchange (Net total exchange and exchange by country, Monthly resolution )
Assumptions (Overview of exogenous input to the model)

What to expect from us?

As indicated, the four countries covered and new web pages included at the outset is only the beginning. We aim to keep you updated on changes and additional services we make for Complete Forward on a dedicated changelog.

Feedback would be appreciated.

 

Outage of the Italian-Greek interconnector and positive commercial flow

According to the common statement of the both – Italian (Terna) and Greek (Admie) – TSOs, a technical problem located in the undersea part of the cable is currently affecting the IT-GR interconnector. The failure is not expected to be fixed until the end of the year. Accordingly, we reduced our forecast for the available transfer capacity of the link to zero. However, the commercial flow values reported are unequal zero what in the visualization on MKonline might be perceived as an error.

positive commercial flow_1

In fact, neither daily nor monthly capacities can be allocated, since monthly auctions have been canceled and no daily actions are being performed. Only the long-term capacities already allocated are handled by the Joint Auction Office (JAO). Hence, the actual flow unequal zero reported on the MKOnline pages is correct.

Flow-based market coupling gives significant lower Dutch spot prices

Flow-based market coupling was introduced on 20 May in the CWE region. MKonline has previously published blog posts on the topic:

In this report we will focus on observed changes in prices and border flow since 20 May. We have selected the Dutch spot market,  border flow and price differences towards Germany.

Parallel runs of flow-based market coupling since 2013 indicated that the Dutch spot prices (APX) were expected to be reduced by about 2.5 €/MWh compared to the previous ATC spot settlement. It was also expected that imports from Germany would increase and consequently narrow the price difference between APX and Phelix prices.

Continue reading Flow-based market coupling gives significant lower Dutch spot prices

Exchange on MKonline

On MKonline the import is defined as positive and export as negative. It is possible to find the exchange data both on the web page and in the Data Center. In the Data Center arrow in the names reflect the direction of the exchange (import-export). For SI>IT the exchange is positive for net import to Italy from Slovenia and negative otherwise.

Net Transfer Capacity (NTC)

The Day Ahead Net Transfer Capacity is the maximum power transfer you can have between two countries. The NTC must be specified for both directions since some lines are one-directional, reduced in one direction due to maintenance etc. You can find it on MKonline under Power -> Exchange TSO Numbers -> Net Transfer Capacity. In the example below you can see how the import/export capacity from Spain to France changes. At midnight on 6 December 2014, the import NTC to Spain from France was 1200MW (black solid line) while the maximum import NTC on this border the last year was 1300MW (black dashed line). The export capacity was 1000 MW, also reduced 100 MW from the historical maximum.

NTC

Implicit exchange (Market Coupling)

The Available Implicit Exchange Capacity or Available Transfer capacity (ATC) is the capacity that can be used in the implicit auction of countries with market coupling.

The ATC must be specified for both directions and can different form the NTC if some of the capacity already is allocated in explicit auctions. The ATC can be found under Power -> Exchange TSO Numbers -> Implicit Exchange. The figure below shows the ATC between Spain and France. This example demonstrates that for some borders the ATC varies on an hourly level and it also demonstrates that the ATC may be greater than the NTC. The NTC from FR to ES varies between 1200 MW and 1300 MW, while the ATC from FR to ES varies between 1200 MW and 1424 MW. Let us continue with the example of midnight on 6 December. The NTC ES>FR is 1000 MW and the NTC FR>ES is 1200 MW. The ATC on the same border is 985 MW for ES>FR and 1215 MW for FR>ES, shifted 15 MW from the NTC. This suggests that 15 MW is already allocated and scheduled for transfer in the explicit auction. Although it is only possible to physically transfer 1200 MW from FR to ES, the ATC in this direction will increase from 1200 MW to 1215 MW, due to the extra 15 MW scheduled in the opposite direction.

ATC

Commercial flow and Market Coupling Flow

Allocated Implicit Exchange or Market Coupling flow is the net import from the trades on the implicit exchange market and the Commercial Exchange is the net import for all the day ahead scheduled transfers across borders. The Allocated Implicit Exchange can be found together with the ATC on MKonline. The Commercial Exchange is available in the tab Power -> Exchange TSO Numbers -> Commercial Flow H.  The figure below shows the Commercial Exchange between ES and FR. The Allocated Implicit Exchange in the figure above is different from the commercial flow although you need to look more closely to spot the difference. Going back to the example for midnight on 6 December 2014, the Allocated Implicit Exchange is -224 MW (flow from ES to FR) and the Commercial Flow of -239 MW. The 15 MW difference is from explicit trading and confirms the shift in the ATC.

ComFlow

Physical Flow

The Physical Flow is what is actually transferred in the cable between two countries. It can be different from the commercial flow due to intraday trading or unscheduled flows.

Unscheduled flows are either loop or transit flows. If a commercial flow is scheduled from area A to area B, but the physical path of this power transfer goes through are C, then there is a transit flow through C. A loop flow is when power transferred from one part of area A to another part of area A takes the path through area B.

On MKOnline we only publish net physical flow, and this is not affected by the unscheduled flows. However some countries have large differences in physical flow and (day-ahead) commercial flow due to intraday trading. In the above example for Spain we can see that the net physical flow, at times, deviates significantly from the net commercial flow.

Net Transfer Capacity Forecast and Source

Power flow is an important and integrated part of the power price formation throughout Europe. In order to forecast price and power flow MKonline provides forecasts on net transfer capacities too.

MKonline supports data feed and forecast for net commercial transfer capacity for a wide range of borders and price areas. Click here to see an example of how net transfer capacity is presented for Germany. If you do not have access, please apply for a free trial here.

The table beneath depicts the source of data on actual numbers. Times for publication of actual number, prior to the spot fix are given in CE(S)T unless otherwise is indicated.

We update our NTC forecast at various times throughout the workday.

Area TSO Publication time
All TSOs in EU Entsoe  – –
Nord Pool
NO1 – NO5 STATNETT 09:00 – 10:00
SE1 – SE4 SVK 09:00 – 10:00
FI FINGRID 09:00 – 10:00
DK1 – DK2 Energinet 09:00 – 10:00
Central Western Europe
DE TransnetBW 09:30 – 10:30
Tennet 09:30 – 10:30
50hertz 09:30 – 10:30
Amprion 09:30 – 10:30
FR RTE 09:30 – 10:30
AT APG 09:30 – 10:30
CH Swissgrid 09:30 – 10:30
NL Tennet 09:30 – 10:30
BE ELIA 09:30 – 10:30
Central Eastern Europe
PL PSE 08:45 – 09:25
CZ CEPS 08:45 – 09:25
SK SEPSAS 08:45 – 09:25
HU Mavir 08:45 – 09:25
Baltic area
EE ELERING 09:00 – 10:00
LV AST 09:00 – 10:00
LT LITGRID 09:00 – 10:00
Italy
IT TERNA Pending
Iberian Peninsula
ES REE Pending
PT REN Pending
South East Europe
RO Transelectrica Pending
SI ELES Pending
GR ADMIE Pending
RS EMS Pending
BA NOSBIH Pending
HR HOPS Pending
BG Tso.bg Pending
MK Mepso Pending
ME Tso-epcg Pending
Other
UK Nationalgrid Pending
SONI Pending
SSE Pending
Scottishpower Pending
TR Teias Pending

 

 

Changelog InstantSpot

InstantSpot is a large model concept that contains an abundance of details. Furthermore, we add small and large upgrades frequently.

We have set up this blog post to facilitate project transparency. It contains dates for changes,  what’s updated and why, as well as short explanations for the changes.

We have added some links to MKonline. If you do not have access to the page, please feel free to apply for a free trial here. 

List of updates

 

  • 13.03.2017  Ensemble forecasts disseminated 40 minutes earlier. ECMWF decided to start publishing the Ens forecast earlier than before. As Instant Spot is continuous updated during the arrival of the weather forecasts, useful information on prices and flow forecasts based on the Ens models will be also available earlier.
  • 03.03.2017 Re-estimation of the ES and IT models. Why: we considered new assumptions on the SRMC gas and coal forecasts and re-calibrated the models using recent historical data. Using the revised SRMC curve we observe an improvement in the weekly and monthly prices forecast.
  • 20.02.2017 Re-estimation of the BG model. After changing the currency to  EUR/MWh, we have recalibrated the model using recent historical data and including the SRMC coal assumptions into the model.
  • 18.01.2017 Instant Spot model for BG has been changed from BGN/MWh to EUR/MWh. Why: since last week the Bulgarian TSO IBEX started publishing the Day Ahead prices in EUR/MWh, instead of BGN/MWh. Prices and exchange flows have been recalculated and republished on MKonline.
  • 14.12.2016 Added market prices on the Overview page for      CZ, SK and HU. Why: get a direct comparison between our latest price forecast and the closing market prices in order to better follow the market direction. Closing market prices for more countries will follow.
  • 28.10.2016 New pages added to the Instant Spot: Overview and Track Record pages added for BG, RS and HR; top level Price Hourly Page for SEE area added.
  • 26.10.2016 Fixed error into the climate scenarios forecast in the CWE area. Some assumptions used for the flow based calculation for this part of the forecast were erroneous. We detected and corrected the error. This fix improved the price forecast for the monthly contracts substantially.
  • 06.10.2016 Re-estimation of the Dutch model. Why: we considered new assumptions on the SRMC gas and coal forecasts and re-calibrated the model using recent historical data. Using the revised SRMC curve we expect an improvement in the weekly and monthly prices forecast.
  • 23.08.2016 Added weekly section on the Overview pages. Why: in order to complete the presentation for prices forecast, power balance tables and available capacity numbers aggregated for the weeks and up to two months ahead.
  • 27.07.2016 Added market prices on the Overview page for      NP, DE, FR, IT, ES and UK. Why: get a direct comparison between our latest price forecast and the closing market prices in order to better follow the market direction. Closing market prices for more countries will follow.
  • 22.07.2016 Market coupling flow between AT and SI added. Why: as of 21st of July the market coupling involving the Austrian and Slovenian day-ahead electricity markets went officially online.
  • 05.07.2016 32-days ahead forecast added for HR, RS and BG
  • 24.06.2016  Serbia added to the Instant Spot.
  • 24.04.2016 A new Overview page added.
  • 04.04.2016 PRI_INSTANTSPOT_MERGED_H_F added to the Data Center for all price areas. The files consist of Merged Price Forecast from Day Ahead up to 62 days ahead.
  • 31.03.2016 An “Overview” page has been added for all price areas.
  • 15.02.2016  Bulgaria and Croatia added to the Instant Spot. The two countries are part of the pan European market by interconnections via RO, RS, GR, TR, respectively SI, HU and RS.
  • 03.02.2016 “Actual Prices” Page for Bulgaria included after Independent Bulgarian Energy Exchange IBEX launched a daily Spot auction on January 19th. Addition of the price model is pending. Besides this we are also prepared to launch Serbian and Croatian models as soon as their exchange places launch daily auctions. SEEPEX is about to launch Serbian Day-Ahead market February 17th. CROPEX has announced 10th February 2016 as the go-live date for the CROPEX day-ahead market.
  • 23.11.2015 InstantSpot provides an improvement algorithm of the FlowBased Capacity Domain beyond the day ahead time horizon.
  • 12.11.2015 Two new cables are included in the InstantSpot exchange system: LitPol (LT-PL) and NordBalt (LT-SE4). We provide NTC and flow forecasts on both interconnectors.
  • 09.11.2015 The bug in the Austrian IS model was fixed. Later evidence in the Track Record is showing a much more natural error distribution.
  • 05.08.2015 Redesign of “Total Hydro Production vs. Price” section within the “Price & Fundamentals” page in relevant areas. Day Ahead forecast is now shown in addition to the recent history.
  • 10.7.2015 InstantSpot extended to 32 days, read more here. WHY: Having quantified the ECMWF 32-day weather forecast it follows suite to put a price tag to the 32-day forecasts.
  • 27.5.2015 BorderStatus, a page showing the status on capacity and flow for more than 50 interlinked price areas launched. Why: Share the input info we use in our price forecasts and also maybe save you the time and effort doing it on your side.
  • 20.5.2015 Introduced FlowBasedMarketCoupling for DE, FR, NL, and BE. Why: FBMC was introduced the same day. Parallel runs clearly demonstrates a substantial effect on price and power flows in the area. Finally MKonline stays dedicated to provide forecast on the relevant market design.
  • 08.05.2015 Cross-border flow forecast added for the 500 MW HVDC link between Greece and Italy price zone SUD. Why: Our analysis clearly demonstrates the importance of capturing NTC and resulting power flow in the price formation.
  • 30.04.2015 All Ensemble paths for the Instant Spot prices forecast have been added to the Data Center for all areas in the PRI_INSTANTSPOT_ENS_H_F file. Why: to be able to closely analyze the weather driven uncertainty translated into price forecast and follow the trend of each path in the Ensemble model. The 50 ensemble price curves can be downloaded for a time horizon of 15 days and will be updated after each EC forecast.
  • 24.4.15 Greece  added as Beta. Why: Greece is part of the Pan European Power market via connections to IT, BU, MK, AL  and TR. Current commercial flow, see graph beneath, represents 20% to 25% percent of indigenous power consumption.
    GR_Exchange
    The end goal of the addition is to is to fully integrate Greece in our pan European spot model and hence improve the quality and deepen the reporting on spot formation available on MKonline.
  • 21.4.15 Weekly contract view added. See it for NP and DE. Why: InstantSpot were initially developed for the short term, 2-4 days. Adding more features we now sees that IS model now exhibit high skill for the period next week, and also for the entire 15 days forecast. The newly added page exhibit the WA forecast, comparison to previous weeks, and full calculation of the embedded weather uncertainty, measured in Euro. We have also overplayed the end of day traded WA contract for comparison to market. Feedback would be appreciated.
  • 23.03.2015 Cross-border flow forecast for the HU-HR border has been included into the model. Why: in order to improve and complete the flows and price forecast in the Pan European Spot model.
  • 19.03.2015 Cross-border flow forecast for the FI-RU border has been included into the model. This is one of the missing external borders which we aim to include into the model separate sub-models. These external borders refer to transmission lines to countries for which there is no official power exchange (e.g. BG, HR, UA) or they are not part of the Instant Spot model area, (e.g. Russia). Why: in order to improve and complete the flows and price forecast in the Pan European Spot model.
  • 27.02.2015 “Total Hydro Production vs. Price” section within the “Price & Fundamentals” page included for relevant areas (NO1 to NO5, FR, CH, RO, ES, PT)
  • 26.2.2015 Introducing market videos every workday. Why: We expect a market video to better demonstrate the complex and intertwined picture of cause and effect in the pan European power market.
  • 24.02.2015 Italian Borders Market Coupling included in the model.  Why: The market coupling between IT-FR and IT-AT borders started 24.Feb. The ATCs and market coupling flow has been added on MKonline. The flow calculations in the model will change from only explicit to both implicit and explicit exchange.
  • 02.02.2015 Re-estimation of the Polish model. We have re-estimated the parameters for this model after removing the auto-regressive part of the model. The importance of the fundamental component in the model increased and we observe an improvement in the price forecast especially for the offpeak hours.
  • 14.12.14 Revision of the model for Poland. We have changed the structure of the auto-regressive (stochastic) part of the model. Why: The previous deign caused misconceptions in the expected price formation following days with strong spikes, recently seen in the PL market.  In parallel we continue our efforts to further improve the fit of the fundamental component in the model.
  • 18.12.2014 Added the market coupling flow between Romania and Hungary. As of 19th of November the market coupling involving the Czech, Slovak, Hungarian and Romanian day-ahead electricity markets (the 4M Market Coupling Project) went online.
  • 11.12.14 Added price in the ResidualProduction graphs on the page Prices & Fundamentals. Why: It facilitate an easy comparison between fundamental signals, see bars and red line in graph, and the price change, indicated with dots in the graph.Price_Fundametals_1
  • 2.12.14 Added files with Net Transfer Capacity forecast to the Data Center. Why: You conveniently may retrieve our latest NTC forecast and use this as input in your proprietary models. Note also that we provide you with updated numbers from the TSOs too, if you chose to use these as input.
  • 1.12.14 Put up an AdventCalendar and open access to IS. Why: Simply to for you to get acquainted with the model.
  • 25.10.14 CZ, SK, SI and UK were taken out of BETA.  
  • 22.10.14 PostFix added to the update schedule. Postfix means that we have added a separate forecast between the arrival for the spot and the EC12Deterministic. We start PostFix  update at 15:00 CE(S)T ends it when the EC12 arrives. PostFix may only be viewed in this time interval.  Why: Instead of waiting until tomorrow, you may start preparing for the next spot nomination only a couple of hours after you received the DA price. It also means that you will receive a continuous spot forecast during the afternoon. Later we will move the PostFix even closer to the arrival of spot price actuals.
  • 21.10.14 Added power flow to the download files. Why: With this upgrade you find a consistent set of power-price -flow for the three last updates.
  • 17.9.14 Added graph showing the shift in foretasted Residual Production is added to the page Price & Fundamentals. Why:  With one glimpse you see the composition of the shift, e.g. is it wind power of power flow that contributes to the shift in expected Residual Production.
  • 29.8.14 Added Price & Fundamentals, a page where we combine the latest price and fundamental forecast. This update is the first version of this page . We plan to add more info and one page for Daily resolution too.
  • 28.8.14 Added forecast on commercial flow and net transfer capacity for Austria. Why: We expect an improvement in the prices and flow forecasts, not only for the neighboring countries, but also for price areas in SEE and Italy.

Continue reading Changelog InstantSpot

Exchange Assembled

This pages sums up the exchange number for individual borders to total net import for a price area. You will find:

  • Net Import for all borders, shown as staples. Export is shown as negative numbers
  • Total net import, shown as a line, summing up net import for each individual hour: -Actuals, shown as black dotted line -Forecast, based on EC00 Det, shown as a red or blue line

On the same page we also calculate and present charts showing the change in net import from one day to the next and change from previous week. Continue reading Exchange Assembled