We are proud to announce that MKonline introduces a brand new system for medium term forecasting. We expect to launch for test users during the week
starting with 24.October 1.November 2016.
Beyond forecasting power prices for all traded power-products, the system also offer comprehensive forecasts for all fundamentals and power flow to adjoining markets.
We start by covering the markets for DE, FR, NL, and BE. However, we are committed to add more countries soon. Our end goal is to offer a pan European coverage of forward markets, similar to what we offer with InstantSpot.
A detailed description of the model will follow in a later blog post.
Do I need to change my work habit?
Not at all! For a period, we will run the current forward model, named Conventional Forward, in parallel with the new one. In due time we will announce shut down date for the Conventional Forward model, starting with DE and FR in December. This will ease the transition for you and allow us time to complete the presentation build for the new forward product.
Note however, in order to distinguish the two models we have renamed the current Forward to “Conventional Forward” and name the new product “Complete Forward”. The name is chosen simply because the new system offers forecast not only on prices but on a broad field of variables linked to price formation.
Model update, every day
The new forward pages are updated every morning, quantifying the effect of recent changes in fuel costs and latest weather forecasts on price, dispatch and exchange. In addition, each week the assumptions concerning production capacities etc are revised factored in to the forecast.
However, gaining experience, we aim to increase the update frequency and finally support a continuous updated forward picture for Europe, in line with the update frequency of our spot forecasts.
What is shown?
As we set out, Complete Forward offers four new web pages. However, in line with MKonline’s strive to develop we will extend the content substantially and also improve on the initial pages. The four new pages are:
Price by products (Price forecast for each relevant product, calculation of difference to market (bull/bear signal) , shift in forecast and marginal fuel cost)
Power Balance (Comprehensive overview of the power mix, demand and power exchange)
Exchange (Net total exchange and exchange by country, Monthly resolution )
Assumptions (Overview of exogenous input to the model)
What to expect from us?
As indicated, the four countries covered and new web pages included at the outset is only the beginning. We aim to keep you updated on changes and additional services we make for Complete Forward on a dedicated changelog.
Feedback would be appreciated.