Tag Archives: forecast

Net Transfer Capacity added to Data Center

Please be informed that we have added the NTC forecast for individual price areas to our Data Center.

Each file contains commercial import and export capacity for a price area and all its adjoining power markets.  The figure illustrates that Germany runs exchange with 9 price areas. Therefore, the file contains 9*2=18 variables in total. It follows the update schedule for Instant Spot.

NTC_Germany

How to find the file

Simply use the search field in the Data Center. Type in NTC and the price area you are looking for.

Click here to see an example of how net transfer capacity is presented for Germany. If you do not have access, please apply for a free trial here.

Why add a forecast for NTC

TSOs are perceived to issue forecasts on NTC. However, operating the Instant Spot model since January 2013, we have noticed a wide array of flaws, errors, and pit falls in the provided numbers. The quality varies over time. For some borders the issued numbers are literally useless.

Therefore, we have established a new routine. A panel of analysts validates the capacity numbers each workday.  Furthermore, we plan to issue comments on the NTC numbers.

MKonline keeps you posted.

 

Ensemble forecast in the Data Center

Following customers requests, we have started to publish all 51 ensemble runs in the Data Center.

At this round we added 4 variables: Temperature, Consumption, Photovoltaic, and Residual Load (Con-Wnd-SPV). Later we will add many more ensemble forecasts, such as Precipitation Energy, Price, Exchange, Hydrology and many more.

How to find data?

MKonline covers all of Europe (except Iceland and Ireland) in all price areas/areas 57. How can you find the data?

Data_Center_Ens_1

Simply go to the Data Center, place your cursor in the search field (top left corner) and type in the name of the price area/country and variable you are looking for. The system filters it out as you write.

Let us assume you search for Ensemble Switzerland.  2-3 letters in each word would filter out the files for you. We have also included some predefined filters, see on the left side of the Data Center.

Update and Structure of the files

The files follow the updated schedule for the ECMWF forecast and contain the two latest ensemble forecasts.  The file will rotate in order that the first 51 columns always contain the most recent ensemble forecast, whether this is EC00 or EC12.

Each file contains only one variable for one price area, as indicated in the Ensemble Switzerland example

In order to avoid any confusion regarding the data’s freshness, there is a row above the column names containing the issue date of the data.

 

Price and Flow in same file

MKonline supports data files from its InstantSpot model with forecasts of both power price and  power flow to all adjoining markets each 15 minute. See here for details.

The naming, updating and rolling over of alternative forecast may seem complicated. If you are only interested in the latest forecast you find this positioned to the far left in file.

Updating of the files

The InstantSpot model is simulated more or less each 15 minutes as input arrives over the day. At the same time both the web and the files in the DataCenter are updated too. The following figure illustrates the connection between arrival and updating of the weather and fundamentals forecasts, (W2F), the IS model, and the rotation of the files in the DataCenter.

W2F and IS update_1

Format of the files

We supports 6 alternative forecasts for each individual price area. The latest two alternative forecasts are always positioned to  the left. The naming of the alternatives follows the naming convention used on the the ECMWF weather forecast, Eg. EC00Det, EC00Ens, etc. In addition to this we have a separate forecast, issued after the arrival of the actual spot. We have coined this PostFix, and amend PF in the naming to indicate this.

Note that for each forecast alternative, there are several columns depending on how many borders a country exchanges power with.

Rotating time and names of the alternative price-flow forecasts

Rotating Latest forecasts Second last forecasts Third last forecasts
00:00 – 06:40 EC12Det Y’d EC12Ens Y’d EC00Det PF Y’d EC00Ens PF Y’d EC00Det Y’d EC00Ens PF Y’d
6:41 – 15:00 EC00Det 6:41 EC00Ens 8:40 EC12Det Y’d EC12Ens Y’d EC00Det PF Y’d EC00Ens PF Y’d
15:00 – 18:40 EC00Det PF 15:00 EC00Ens PF 15:00 EC00Det ≈12:00 EC00Ens ≈12:00 EC12Det Y’d EC12Ens Y’d
18:40 – 00:00 EC12Det 18:40 EC12Ens 20:40 EC00DetPF ≈18:40 EC00EnsPF ≈18:40 EC00Det ≈12:00 EC00Ens ≈12:00

Y’d indicates files generated yesterday. Time stamps, in column 2 and 3, e.g. 8:41 CET, indicates when we start to update the file in question. Time stamp in the 4 last columns e.g. 12:00 CET indicates last update time for the file in question. PF is an abbreviation for the PostFix update. PostFix indicates the forecast alternative we offer after spot has arrived.

Step by step procedure

06:40 CET            The EC00 deterministic W2F forecast start to come in. IS EC00Det starts running and is rotated together with EC00Ens to the left in the Data Center Files. EC00Ens columns are empty.

08:00 CET             The EC00Det W2F forecast is complete. The IS EC00Det continues to update as more information about exchange etc. are updated.

08:40 CET             The EC00Ens W2F forecast start to come in. IS EC00Ens starts running and the EC00Ens columns in the Data Center fill up.

10:00 CET             The EC00Ens W2F forecast is complete. IS EC00Det and IS EC00Ens continue running.

12:00 CE(S)T       Deadline for spot nominations. IS EC00Det and IS EC00Ens stop running and the final time stamp is just before noon.

12-15 CET(S)       Break for the Instant Spot. Our analysts update some of the input to the model.

15:00 CET(S)T     IS EC00Det and Ens Postfix start running. Both forecasts are rotated to the left in the Data Center files.

18:40 CET             The EC12 deterministic weather forecast start to come in. IS EC12Det start running and is rotated together with EC12Ens to the left in the Data Center Files. EC12Ens columns are empty.

20:00 CET             The EC12Det weather forecast is complete. The IS EC12Det continues to update as more information about exchange etc. are updated.

20:40 CET             The EC12Ens W2F forecast start to come in. IS EC12Ens starts running and the EC12Ens columns in the Data Center fill up.

22:00 CET             The EC12Ens W2F forecast is complete. IS EC12Det and IS EC12Ens continue running.

00:00 CET(S)T     The Data Center files are republished with the same data as before, but we amend Y to the names to indicate that the forecasts are issued “Yesterday”.

Net Transfer Capacity Forecast and Source

Power flow is an important and integrated part of the power price formation throughout Europe. In order to forecast price and power flow MKonline provides forecasts on net transfer capacities too.

MKonline supports data feed and forecast for net commercial transfer capacity for a wide range of borders and price areas. Click here to see an example of how net transfer capacity is presented for Germany. If you do not have access, please apply for a free trial here.

The table beneath depicts the source of data on actual numbers. Times for publication of actual number, prior to the spot fix are given in CE(S)T unless otherwise is indicated.

We update our NTC forecast at various times throughout the workday.

Area TSO Publication time
All TSOs in EU Entsoe  – –
Nord Pool
NO1 – NO5 STATNETT 09:00 – 10:00
SE1 – SE4 SVK 09:00 – 10:00
FI FINGRID 09:00 – 10:00
DK1 – DK2 Energinet 09:00 – 10:00
Central Western Europe
DE TransnetBW 09:30 – 10:30
Tennet 09:30 – 10:30
50hertz 09:30 – 10:30
Amprion 09:30 – 10:30
FR RTE 09:30 – 10:30
AT APG 09:30 – 10:30
CH Swissgrid 09:30 – 10:30
NL Tennet 09:30 – 10:30
BE ELIA 09:30 – 10:30
Central Eastern Europe
PL PSE 08:45 – 09:25
CZ CEPS 08:45 – 09:25
SK SEPSAS 08:45 – 09:25
HU Mavir 08:45 – 09:25
Baltic area
EE ELERING 09:00 – 10:00
LV AST 09:00 – 10:00
LT LITGRID 09:00 – 10:00
Italy
IT TERNA Pending
Iberian Peninsula
ES REE Pending
PT REN Pending
South East Europe
RO Transelectrica Pending
SI ELES Pending
GR ADMIE Pending
RS EMS Pending
BA NOSBIH Pending
HR HOPS Pending
BG Tso.bg Pending
MK Mepso Pending
ME Tso-epcg Pending
Other
UK Nationalgrid Pending
SONI Pending
SSE Pending
Scottishpower Pending
TR Teias Pending

 

 

Exchange Assembled

This pages sums up the exchange number for individual borders to total net import for a price area. You will find:

  • Net Import for all borders, shown as staples. Export is shown as negative numbers
  • Total net import, shown as a line, summing up net import for each individual hour: -Actuals, shown as black dotted line -Forecast, based on EC00 Det, shown as a red or blue line

On the same page we also calculate and present charts showing the change in net import from one day to the next and change from previous week. Continue reading Exchange Assembled

Why we changed our emission forecast for 2014

In this video, Espen Andreassen and Olav Johan Botnen guides you through assumptions for our emissions forecast for 2014. The key points are:

  • A mild winter and spring has lead to significant power consumption declines in Central/North Western Europe
  • The sanctions against Russia is expected to hamper European industrial activity in the coming months/years

Watch the video presentation below (5 minutes). Maximize to full screen for best viewer experience by pressing the icon in the lower right corner.