Spot prices are currently increasing heavily in the SEE area as the hydropower situation is getting extremely scarce these days. The weather outlooks are dry too, so this situation will at least persist towards the first part of February. We already published a blog story of the situation and focused on hydrology/hydropower and market prices (Spot/FWD). Continue reading Spiking SEE spot prices and extremely low hydropower levels
In our blog of Dec 16th, we focused on the extremely low snow levels in the Alps. In some locations, it has been observed close to all-time low snow levels the past 80-100 years. There was a similar situation in December 2015, but during January and February, the situation improved a lot due to torrential rains- and snowfall across the Alpine region. Current outlooks for 2017 are different, there has so been no improvement in the snow situation and present cold outlook results in strongly reduced hydro-reservoirs as well. Continue reading Outlooks for CWE hydropower production 2017 strongly reduced due to low snowlevels
1. Fundamental overview
The power supply situation in France is strongly threatened as peak hour consumption will increase by about 15 GW next week
as temperatures drop 10-1 deg. C from today’s level. Temperatures next week will then be nearly 10 deg. C below normal.
4th lowest level in 80 years observed
The snow levels are low in most parts of the Alpine region these days according to snow curves at MKonline. In Switzerland, there has been made an observation at a 2400m altitude that confirms the 4th lowest in the past 80 years!
The snow levels across the CWE-region are currently 12 – 13 TWh lower than normal, see snow curves from MKonline below. The snow levels were very low last year too, but the situation improved strongly during Q1-16. The question is, will this happen again?
We are pleased to inform that we have updated our hydropower models for Bulgaria (BG). The implementation includes a new Run-of-River and Total production model and a revised Inflow model. The improvements are obtained from applying actual data from ENTSO-E and new river flow data for the inflow calculations.
In our blog of Nov 3rd, we focused on the traded prices for Week 45 (Week Ahead), which had reached an all-time high of 253 €/MWh (Base price). The weather outlook was at that time quite bullish, with Peak load consumption in the first of the week increasing nearly 10 GW compared to the end of week 44. Spot-prices Thursday/Friday week 44 came out at about 70.00/85.00 €/MWh (Daily Base/Peak) and meant an additional bullish signal to the market.
This summer, French nuclear available capacity experienced the lowest values seen during the past 4 years.
In July, French nuclear production was running at 38.0 GW in average, meaning only 60% of the installed capacity. This was significantly lower compared to July last year when the production averaged 70.6% of the total installed capacity.
On this page we summarise the shift in fundamental variables in comparison to the time point of the day-ahead (DA) spot nomination. The reference forecast is therefore the so-called EC00DA forecast. The shifts in fundamental variables are some of the main drivers for the prices in the intraday trading. Therefore, monitoring the development of the shifts can help to improve the intraday price forecasts and to explain price movements in the intraday market. The page is updated every 15 minutes in order to allow a continuous monitoring of any shifts in fundamentals.
In the first graph, subdivided in up to four subgraphs depending on the price area, we show the shift of the individual fundamentals, namely Consumption, Wind and SPV, as well as the summation of these fundamentals, the Residual Load which is defined as
ResLoad = Cons – (WND + SPV).
We are pleased to announce that we have added several new features within the IntraDay section.
What is new?
We have added 3 new menu items and rearranged the section. More additions are pending, but as of 27. Jan we show (new menu items in orange):
- Fundamentals: Combined shift in Residual Load and quantification of Urgent Market Messages (UMMs)
- “Live” Consumption, WND, and SPV including continuous adjustment of the forecasts
- Exchange: Intraday Trading Capacity and Cross-Border Exchange
All of the pages with fundamentals show updated forecasts, directly after new and relevant information arrives. The shifting of the forecasts is depicted in graphs, facilitating convenient lead time analysis of individual quarters and hours.
Note: The coverage of variables and forecast adjustments varies from price area to price area.
We are pleased to inform you that we have upgraded the short-term modelling of total hydro and run-of-river (RoR) production for France and Italy. The upgrade is part of our ongoing hydro project.