Tag Archives: germany

China reverses coal supply cuts – significant consequences for European power markets

Reduced risk of coal supply shortage

Chinese authorities have now allowed all coal mines to return to 330 operational days per year again for the rest of this winter, following the previous reduction to 276 days per year from April 2016 onwards. The 20% increase of operational days will curb the price lift in coal markets and reduce the risk of coal supply shortage for coming winter months in China and also for the rest of the world.

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German power market – bearish August and profitable MKonline recommendations

German Cal 16 has declined approximately 1.5 €/MWh since the beginning of August as a result of the bearish coal market. In addition, the CO2 market turned bearish as well in the middle of August. The attached chart from Platts shows the development of German power and coal ARA the last 3 weeks.

The main explanation for the bearish coal market is reduced – Chinese imports of steam-coal are down nearly 35% since 2014.

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Flow-based market coupling gives significant lower Dutch spot prices

Flow-based market coupling was introduced on 20 May in the CWE region. MKonline has previously published blog posts on the topic:

In this report we will focus on observed changes in prices and border flow since 20 May. We have selected the Dutch spot market,  border flow and price differences towards Germany.

Parallel runs of flow-based market coupling since 2013 indicated that the Dutch spot prices (APX) were expected to be reduced by about 2.5 €/MWh compared to the previous ATC spot settlement. It was also expected that imports from Germany would increase and consequently narrow the price difference between APX and Phelix prices.

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CWE flow-based market coupling to be introduced 20 May

The flow-based CWE price settlement will start on Wednesday 20 May, delayed from previously announced on 23 April. MKonline made a blog post on 11 February about the consequences of flow-based principles, and we will do a short update on this.

Flow-based market coupling

The flow-based price settlement will in general mean that the CWE countries will be stronger linked to each other, as increased utilization of the border capacities will decrease the number of hours with bottlenecks. This means that price differences between the CWE countries Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands will in general decrease, but due to physical constraints in the power systems and border capacities the impact from flow-based settlement will be limited and different in each country.

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New Consumption model in Germany

On Friday 23 January, we aim to update our historic data and implement a new consumption model in Germany.

Background

Power load in Germany is an elusive variable . Not because one lacks sources but because of poor updates and internally inconsistent sources. This could be e.g. hourly numbers not summing up to aggregates over months or years, or summing up individual TSOs to national numbers. Another known issue is that they do not meet simple econometrical criteria one would expect from such data, e.g. sign of derivatives etc.

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Short New Year Review for German power market 2014

The Continental Analysis Group has made a short review of the German power market for 2014. We are showing some key numbers from the physical spot market for 2012 to 2014. In addition we give a review of the Cal-15 development and the MKonline shadow portfolio for the EEX Forward market.

Please take your time to read through the short summary. We wish you all a happy new trading year!

– Eylert Ellefsen, Head of Continental Analysis

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Long Term Price Forecast – Germany 2015-2035

The October edition of MKonline’s Long Term Price Forecast for Germany (LTP Germany) is set for release on Friday 31 October.

Key topics in the October edition

  • Development of German power balance, including power consumption (energy efficiency, industrial development) and whether Energiewende targets can be reached
  • Price scenarios for German spot market for the period 2015-2035
  • Profound discussions about security of supply mechanisms, including capacity price indications

About MKonline’s LTP products

The service is aimed at professionals in need of a medium to long term view on power markets. Equity investors and macro analysts looking for updated information on markets, technological developments and changes in the political framework will find this product time saving and cost efficient. The online product turns MKonline into a one-stop-shop for your long term market intelligence.

More information may be found on the product page. If you have any questions, feel free to send an email to sales@mkonline.com or call us at +47 37 00 97 97.

German “Balancing Energy Market” available on MKonline

The balancing energy market analysis (Ausgleichsenergie) intends to provide an overview of the current market situation. Unpublished balancing prices of the last days are estimated and the main price drivers are presented to support users in making trading decisions on the day-back/day-after market or to evaluate their balancing positions.

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German “Minutes reserve market” available on MKonline

The analysis for the control reserve market (Regelenergie) on MKonline currently covers the minutes reserve market for negative and positive products in Germany. An analysis for the secondary control reserve is under development.

The analysis utilizes fundamental and stochastic price drivers as well as simulation methodologies to forecast both capacity and energy prices for the coming two weeks. In addition, the MKonline pages structure the complex control reserve data and provide a general overview of the market situation.

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Long Term Price Forecast – German Power release date March 3rd

MKonline’s first edition of Long Term Price Forecast for Electric Power in Germany is to be launched on Monday 3rd March 2014. The product is an online service for continuous updated long term fundamentals and price forecasts for the German power market.

Main topics in the current release

The Energiewende has the potential to completely reshape the supply side in the power mix in Germany. The report investigates in detail how the power balance over 2014 to 2030 could develop. High attention is put on production capacity to expire, what will expectedly take its place and how this is interlinked with the Energiewende targets.

Finally, based on the reported fundamental outlook, we provide a power price prognosis for the full period, 2014 to 2030. In this part emphasis is put on how fuel and EUA prices influence the power mix and price path.

Some keywords and questions discussed in this edition:

  • Fallout of Energiewende; what does it mean in terms of power balance?
  • Power consumption; development and composition
  • Nuclear phase-out; what type and amount of new capacity are needed?
  • Exchange capacity development; cold we see growth in both renewables and thermal?
  • Decommissioning of nuclear and thermal capacity; Could security of supply be jeopardized?

Information and price

Read more on the product page. If you have any questions, feel free to send us an email or call us at +47 37 00 97 97.