During January we posted two blogs commenting the low hydrological situation in the Alps as precipitation in December came out at the driest level for several decades across CWE and the Alpine region. The precipitation deficit regarding energy meant nearly 13 TWh, so the snow package was extremely low by New Year. The situation did not improve during January which was icy and dry, and deficit in snow and groundwater was even more severe by the end of January. Continue reading Alpine snow and groundwater levels still below normal
Critical levels can be reached this winter
In our blog of January 16th, we focused on the very low hydrological balance across the CWE region. The hydrological deficit is still about
20 TWh lower than normal which may result in nearly 5000 MW reduced hydropower (- 25%) during May-July.
In this blog post, we will focus on the hydropower situation in Switzerland. Continue reading All-time low Swiss hydro reservoirs
Spot prices are currently increasing heavily in the SEE area as the hydropower situation is getting extremely scarce these days. The weather outlooks are dry too, so this situation will at least persist towards the first part of February. We already published a blog story of the situation and focused on hydrology/hydropower and market prices (Spot/FWD). Continue reading Spiking SEE spot prices and extremely low hydropower levels
In our blog of Dec 16th, we focused on the extremely low snow levels in the Alps. In some locations, it has been observed close to all-time low snow levels the past 80-100 years. There was a similar situation in December 2015, but during January and February, the situation improved a lot due to torrential rains- and snowfall across the Alpine region. Current outlooks for 2017 are different, there has so been no improvement in the snow situation and present cold outlook results in strongly reduced hydro-reservoirs as well. Continue reading Outlooks for CWE hydropower production 2017 strongly reduced due to low snowlevels
4th lowest level in 80 years observed
The snow levels are low in most parts of the Alpine region these days according to snow curves at MKonline. In Switzerland, there has been made an observation at a 2400m altitude that confirms the 4th lowest in the past 80 years!
The snow levels across the CWE-region are currently 12 – 13 TWh lower than normal, see snow curves from MKonline below. The snow levels were very low last year too, but the situation improved strongly during Q1-16. The question is, will this happen again?
We are pleased to inform that we have updated our hydropower models for Bulgaria (BG). The implementation includes a new Run-of-River and Total production model and a revised Inflow model. The improvements are obtained from applying actual data from ENTSO-E and new river flow data for the inflow calculations.
We have updated and revised normal curves for the hydrology reports. The normal are based on statistics for the period 2004-2015, the previous numbers were based on an older and shorter period.
See charts from the medium term hydrology pages on MKonline below.
The models themselves are not changed or re-calibrated. The current average annual net hydro power level is estimated to 28.0 TWh. Based on the new normal we have updated the average curve for snow/ground water too.
The calculation of current hydrological balance has been adjusted in accordance to the new normals, which were introduced in the weekly reports from Wednesday 16 December.
Please contact us if have any questions to the updated reports.
We are pleased to inform you that we have upgraded the short-term modelling of total hydro and run-of-river (RoR) production for France and Italy. The upgrade is part of our ongoing hydro project.
Hydro power is a very important production category in the SEE market area. About 30% of the total generation is covered by hydro power. It is in fact only the Nord Pool area (55%) which has a larger hydro power share in Europe.
MKonline has provided hydro power analysis for the SEE area since 2010. Now we have updated the energy inflow models for most of the countries. That means Romania, Serbia, Croatia and Slovenia.