Spot prices are currently increasing heavily in the SEE area as the hydropower situation is getting extremely scarce these days. The weather outlooks are dry too, so this situation will at least persist towards the first part of February. We already published a blog story of the situation and focused on hydrology/hydropower and market prices (Spot/FWD). Continue reading Spiking SEE spot prices and extremely low hydropower levels
In our blog of Dec 16th, we focused on the extremely low snow levels in the Alps. In some locations, it has been observed close to all-time low snow levels the past 80-100 years. There was a similar situation in December 2015, but during January and February, the situation improved a lot due to torrential rains- and snowfall across the Alpine region. Current outlooks for 2017 are different, there has so been no improvement in the snow situation and present cold outlook results in strongly reduced hydro-reservoirs as well. Continue reading Outlooks for CWE hydropower production 2017 strongly reduced due to low snowlevels
4th lowest level in 80 years observed
The snow levels are low in most parts of the Alpine region these days according to snow curves at MKonline. In Switzerland, there has been made an observation at a 2400m altitude that confirms the 4th lowest in the past 80 years!
The snow levels across the CWE-region are currently 12 – 13 TWh lower than normal, see snow curves from MKonline below. The snow levels were very low last year too, but the situation improved strongly during Q1-16. The question is, will this happen again?
We are pleased to inform that we have updated our hydropower models for Bulgaria (BG). The implementation includes a new Run-of-River and Total production model and a revised Inflow model. The improvements are obtained from applying actual data from ENTSO-E and new river flow data for the inflow calculations.
We have updated and revised normal curves for the hydrology reports. The normal are based on statistics for the period 2004-2015, the previous numbers were based on an older and shorter period.
See charts from the medium term hydrology pages on MKonline below.
The models themselves are not changed or re-calibrated. The current average annual net hydro power level is estimated to 28.0 TWh. Based on the new normal we have updated the average curve for snow/ground water too.
The calculation of current hydrological balance has been adjusted in accordance to the new normals, which were introduced in the weekly reports from Wednesday 16 December.
Please contact us if have any questions to the updated reports.
We are pleased to inform you that we have upgraded the short-term modelling of total hydro and run-of-river (RoR) production for France and Italy. The upgrade is part of our ongoing hydro project.
Hydro power is a very important production category in the SEE market area. About 30% of the total generation is covered by hydro power. It is in fact only the Nord Pool area (55%) which has a larger hydro power share in Europe.
MKonline has provided hydro power analysis for the SEE area since 2010. Now we have updated the energy inflow models for most of the countries. That means Romania, Serbia, Croatia and Slovenia.
MKonline has observed for a while that hydropower data from the Terna, the Italian TSO, do not represent the total hydropower system as it is reported by the monthly numbers from ENTSO-E or from the yearly Italian statistics from the different regions. MKonline’s aim is to deliver all fundamental data divided in price-zones, which means the six different price-zones for Italy.
MKonline has already established W2F-modelling of Turkey. W2F is an abbreviation for Weather-2-Fundamentals, and covers normally temperatures, consumption, wind power and solar production. Most of these fundamentals are already established for Turkey. MKonline is now happy to announce that as a first part of hydropower modelling for Turkey, we are launching a model for precipitation energy.