On 29th of August, we added a new overview page that connects the price and flow forecasts to the input variables in the InstantSpot model. We named it Price and Fundamentals.
The page is in its developing stage and more info will be added and inconsistencies will be cleared out. Feedback via mail or as comment on this page would be appreciated.
What sets this pages out is that we have calculated and forecasts Residual Production alongside price forecast.
Continue reading Price and Fundamentals
InstantSpot is a large model concept that contains an abundance of details. Furthermore, we add small and large upgrades frequently.
We have set up this blog post to facilitate project transparency. It contains dates for changes, what’s updated and why, as well as short explanations for the changes.
We have added some links to MKonline. If you do not have access to the page, please feel free to apply for a free trial here.
List of updates
- 13.03.2017 Ensemble forecasts disseminated 40 minutes earlier. ECMWF decided to start publishing the Ens forecast earlier than before. As Instant Spot is continuous updated during the arrival of the weather forecasts, useful information on prices and flow forecasts based on the Ens models will be also available earlier.
- 03.03.2017 Re-estimation of the ES and IT models. Why: we considered new assumptions on the SRMC gas and coal forecasts and re-calibrated the models using recent historical data. Using the revised SRMC curve we observe an improvement in the weekly and monthly prices forecast.
- 20.02.2017 Re-estimation of the BG model. After changing the currency to EUR/MWh, we have recalibrated the model using recent historical data and including the SRMC coal assumptions into the model.
- 18.01.2017 Instant Spot model for BG has been changed from BGN/MWh to EUR/MWh. Why: since last week the Bulgarian TSO IBEX started publishing the Day Ahead prices in EUR/MWh, instead of BGN/MWh. Prices and exchange flows have been recalculated and republished on MKonline.
- 14.12.2016 Added market prices on the Overview page for CZ, SK and HU. Why: get a direct comparison between our latest price forecast and the closing market prices in order to better follow the market direction. Closing market prices for more countries will follow.
- 28.10.2016 New pages added to the Instant Spot: Overview and Track Record pages added for BG, RS and HR; top level Price Hourly Page for SEE area added.
- 26.10.2016 Fixed error into the climate scenarios forecast in the CWE area. Some assumptions used for the flow based calculation for this part of the forecast were erroneous. We detected and corrected the error. This fix improved the price forecast for the monthly contracts substantially.
- 06.10.2016 Re-estimation of the Dutch model. Why: we considered new assumptions on the SRMC gas and coal forecasts and re-calibrated the model using recent historical data. Using the revised SRMC curve we expect an improvement in the weekly and monthly prices forecast.
- 23.08.2016 Added weekly section on the Overview pages. Why: in order to complete the presentation for prices forecast, power balance tables and available capacity numbers aggregated for the weeks and up to two months ahead.
- 27.07.2016 Added market prices on the Overview page for NP, DE, FR, IT, ES and UK. Why: get a direct comparison between our latest price forecast and the closing market prices in order to better follow the market direction. Closing market prices for more countries will follow.
- 22.07.2016 Market coupling flow between AT and SI added. Why: as of 21st of July the market coupling involving the Austrian and Slovenian day-ahead electricity markets went officially online.
- 05.07.2016 32-days ahead forecast added for HR, RS and BG
- 24.06.2016 Serbia added to the Instant Spot.
- 24.04.2016 A new Overview page added.
- 04.04.2016 PRI_INSTANTSPOT_MERGED_H_F added to the Data Center for all price areas. The files consist of Merged Price Forecast from Day Ahead up to 62 days ahead.
- 31.03.2016 An “Overview” page has been added for all price areas.
- 15.02.2016 Bulgaria and Croatia added to the Instant Spot. The two countries are part of the pan European market by interconnections via RO, RS, GR, TR, respectively SI, HU and RS.
- 03.02.2016 “Actual Prices” Page for Bulgaria included after Independent Bulgarian Energy Exchange IBEX launched a daily Spot auction on January 19th. Addition of the price model is pending. Besides this we are also prepared to launch Serbian and Croatian models as soon as their exchange places launch daily auctions. SEEPEX is about to launch Serbian Day-Ahead market February 17th. CROPEX has announced 10th February 2016 as the go-live date for the CROPEX day-ahead market.
- 12.11.2015 Two new cables are included in the InstantSpot exchange system: LitPol (LT-PL) and NordBalt (LT-SE4). We provide NTC and flow forecasts on both interconnectors.
- 09.11.2015 The bug in the Austrian IS model was fixed. Later evidence in the Track Record is showing a much more natural error distribution.
- 05.08.2015 Redesign of “Total Hydro Production vs. Price” section within the “Price & Fundamentals” page in relevant areas. Day Ahead forecast is now shown in addition to the recent history.
- 10.7.2015 InstantSpot extended to 32 days, read more here. WHY: Having quantified the ECMWF 32-day weather forecast it follows suite to put a price tag to the 32-day forecasts.
- 27.5.2015 BorderStatus, a page showing the status on capacity and flow for more than 50 interlinked price areas launched. Why: Share the input info we use in our price forecasts and also maybe save you the time and effort doing it on your side.
- 20.5.2015 Introduced FlowBasedMarketCoupling for DE, FR, NL, and BE. Why: FBMC was introduced the same day. Parallel runs clearly demonstrates a substantial effect on price and power flows in the area. Finally MKonline stays dedicated to provide forecast on the relevant market design.
- 08.05.2015 Cross-border flow forecast added for the 500 MW HVDC link between Greece and Italy price zone SUD. Why: Our analysis clearly demonstrates the importance of capturing NTC and resulting power flow in the price formation.
- 30.04.2015 All Ensemble paths for the Instant Spot prices forecast have been added to the Data Center for all areas in the PRI_INSTANTSPOT_ENS_H_F file. Why: to be able to closely analyze the weather driven uncertainty translated into price forecast and follow the trend of each path in the Ensemble model. The 50 ensemble price curves can be downloaded for a time horizon of 15 days and will be updated after each EC forecast.
- 24.4.15 Greece added as Beta. Why: Greece is part of the Pan European Power market via connections to IT, BU, MK, AL and TR. Current commercial flow, see graph beneath, represents 20% to 25% percent of indigenous power consumption.
The end goal of the addition is to is to fully integrate Greece in our pan European spot model and hence improve the quality and deepen the reporting on spot formation available on MKonline.
- 21.4.15 Weekly contract view added. See it for NP and DE. Why: InstantSpot were initially developed for the short term, 2-4 days. Adding more features we now sees that IS model now exhibit high skill for the period next week, and also for the entire 15 days forecast. The newly added page exhibit the WA forecast, comparison to previous weeks, and full calculation of the embedded weather uncertainty, measured in Euro. We have also overplayed the end of day traded WA contract for comparison to market. Feedback would be appreciated.
- 23.03.2015 Cross-border flow forecast for the HU-HR border has been included into the model. Why: in order to improve and complete the flows and price forecast in the Pan European Spot model.
- 19.03.2015 Cross-border flow forecast for the FI-RU border has been included into the model. This is one of the missing external borders which we aim to include into the model separate sub-models. These external borders refer to transmission lines to countries for which there is no official power exchange (e.g. BG, HR, UA) or they are not part of the Instant Spot model area, (e.g. Russia). Why: in order to improve and complete the flows and price forecast in the Pan European Spot model.
- 27.02.2015 “Total Hydro Production vs. Price” section within the “Price & Fundamentals” page included for relevant areas (NO1 to NO5, FR, CH, RO, ES, PT)
- 26.2.2015 Introducing market videos every workday. Why: We expect a market video to better demonstrate the complex and intertwined picture of cause and effect in the pan European power market.
- 24.02.2015 Italian Borders Market Coupling included in the model. Why: The market coupling between IT-FR and IT-AT borders started 24.Feb. The ATCs and market coupling flow has been added on MKonline. The flow calculations in the model will change from only explicit to both implicit and explicit exchange.
- 02.02.2015 Re-estimation of the Polish model. We have re-estimated the parameters for this model after removing the auto-regressive part of the model. The importance of the fundamental component in the model increased and we observe an improvement in the price forecast especially for the offpeak hours.
- 14.12.14 Revision of the model for Poland. We have changed the structure of the auto-regressive (stochastic) part of the model. Why: The previous deign caused misconceptions in the expected price formation following days with strong spikes, recently seen in the PL market. In parallel we continue our efforts to further improve the fit of the fundamental component in the model.
- 18.12.2014 Added the market coupling flow between Romania and Hungary. As of 19th of November the market coupling involving the Czech, Slovak, Hungarian and Romanian day-ahead electricity markets (the 4M Market Coupling Project) went online.
- 11.12.14 Added price in the ResidualProduction graphs on the page Prices & Fundamentals. Why: It facilitate an easy comparison between fundamental signals, see bars and red line in graph, and the price change, indicated with dots in the graph.
- 2.12.14 Added files with Net Transfer Capacity forecast to the Data Center. Why: You conveniently may retrieve our latest NTC forecast and use this as input in your proprietary models. Note also that we provide you with updated numbers from the TSOs too, if you chose to use these as input.
- 1.12.14 Put up an AdventCalendar and open access to IS. Why: Simply to for you to get acquainted with the model.
- 25.10.14 CZ, SK, SI and UK were taken out of BETA.
- 22.10.14 PostFix added to the update schedule. Postfix means that we have added a separate forecast between the arrival for the spot and the EC12Deterministic. We start PostFix update at 15:00 CE(S)T ends it when the EC12 arrives. PostFix may only be viewed in this time interval. Why: Instead of waiting until tomorrow, you may start preparing for the next spot nomination only a couple of hours after you received the DA price. It also means that you will receive a continuous spot forecast during the afternoon. Later we will move the PostFix even closer to the arrival of spot price actuals.
- 21.10.14 Added power flow to the download files. Why: With this upgrade you find a consistent set of power-price -flow for the three last updates.
- 17.9.14 Added graph showing the shift in foretasted Residual Production is added to the page Price & Fundamentals. Why: With one glimpse you see the composition of the shift, e.g. is it wind power of power flow that contributes to the shift in expected Residual Production.
- 29.8.14 Added Price & Fundamentals, a page where we combine the latest price and fundamental forecast. This update is the first version of this page . We plan to add more info and one page for Daily resolution too.
- 28.8.14 Added forecast on commercial flow and net transfer capacity for Austria. Why: We expect an improvement in the prices and flow forecasts, not only for the neighboring countries, but also for price areas in SEE and Italy.
Continue reading Changelog InstantSpot
This page shows the available transfer capacity and how it is utilized for individual borders. On the top level, eg. NP, CWE, IB, etc, you find the total for each individual price area. The logic is explained if you run the attached power point.
Download (PPTX, 199KB)
This page is on the same update scheduled as the InstantSpot. See update schedulle for the InstantSpot model
See an example of this page for DE on MKonline. If you do not have access, apply for a free trial here.
On this page you find net transfer capacity. for power. The page sums up net the available net transfer capacity for individual borders to a total net import capacity for a price area. You will find:
- Net Import capacity for all borders, shown as staples. Net Export capacity is shown as negative numbers.
- Superimposed on the capacity numbers (the staples) you find both actual and forecasted total net import. This is simply to put the available net capacity in relation to utilized capacity.
Actual commercial import are shown as a black dotted line and the forecast commercial import, based on EC00 Det, is shown as a red or blue line. Negative numbers indicate export. Continue reading Net Transfer Capacity
This pages sums up the exchange number for individual borders to total net import for a price area. You will find:
- Net Import for all borders, shown as staples. Export is shown as negative numbers
- Total net import, shown as a line, summing up net import for each individual hour: -Actuals, shown as black dotted line -Forecast, based on EC00 Det, shown as a red or blue line
On the same page we also calculate and present charts showing the change in net import from one day to the next and change from previous week. Continue reading Exchange Assembled