In the course of the preparations for phasing out our conventional spot models (as of 2 May DE and FR model and 1 June NPA model) we have launched a new page within the Instant spot menu on MKonline. We hope that the Overview page will serve the customers with the necessary content and round up the way we present the price forecasts and the important price drivers.
The Flow Based Capacity Domain Forecast is available in the Data Center now. The forecast label (EC00Det) indicates the fundamental input to the model. The Data Center file updates when EC00Det is completed around 8.15 a.m.
We are updating our spot model for the NP area. In concrete MKonline will replace its conventional spot model with the InstantSpot model.
….“The conventional spot model has served us well. But we believe that Instant Spot, with its continuous updated price signals and consistent handling of power flow, is the future”, says Tor Reier Lilleholt, Head of Nordic Analysis.
MKonline features a calendar contest 1 – 23 December 2015.
You participate simply by entering your guesstimate of the DayAhead Base spot price for 3 different price areas/countries.
All persons with an MKonline account may attend!
Press here if you want to attend but lack access to MKonline.com
On 1 December a calendar section will appear in the right corner of MKonline’s Power section. You may register and change your bet any time before 11 CET each work day. Note: we have taken great care to safeguard your submitted information, see more info on this beneath.
Every day we will change the price areas. In this way participating in the contest offers a splendid opportunity to get to know spot price areas in Europe, which you usually do not follow. We will put in areas as far apart as Portugal, Turkey, and Finland. Few persons keep a keen eye on all price areas in Europe. Therefore, MKonline offers free access to Instant Spot for the duration of the calendar contest. Feel free to contact us for more information on InstantSpot.
We are proud to announce that we have extended our forecasts for weather and fundamentals to 32 days lead time. All forecasts are delivered with full ensemble.
For a test period this information is made available for free and embedded in the page Price 32 Days. See below for more details on where to find it.
About the forecasts
The new fundamental forecasts are powered by the ECMWF 32-day weather forecasts. Simply put, we translate the 32-day weather forecast for e.g temperatures, precipitation, wind speed, radiation, etc. into MWh/h for all weather driven variables. The underlying fundamental models are identical to the well-known models used on MKonline.
Where to find the 32-day forecasts
For a period, the new weather and fundamental forecasts will only be available on the pages where we provide price forecasts 32 days ahead. See the following examples NP, DE and PL. If you do not subscribe to MKonline.com, apply for a free trial here.
But of course, we plan to set up comprehensive presentations and make the data downloadable, in the same way we present the ECMWF 10- and 15-day lead time.
Please note that the data for the 32-day forecasts are downloadable directly from the graphs.
More than standard fundamentals
Beside the traditional weather driven fundamentals and weather, you will also find forecasts on power flow on these pages, as well as price forecasts.
All variables viewed together provide a unique insight and understanding of the fundamental balance and volatility as a function of weather, available transfer capacity and relative prices in Europe.
The page is updated every day. But please observe the nuances:
- Tuesday and Friday, at 05:20.
Updated weather forecasts from ECMWF are made available for us Tuesday and Friday morning. Hence, the web pages are updated with new weather, new fundamentals and finally new spot forecasts Tuesday and Friday at 05:20. A ticker will notify you.
- Daily update at 7:20
You will notice that the pages are updated every day. This is done to facilitate the inclusion of shifts in non-weather-driven variables into the price forecasts. Not that the Power Flow will shift on these updates, hence affecting the power balance.
What to expect
The 32-day forecast is still in its early utilisation. We plan to add pages for e.g. each variable, make the data available in easy-to-download files, benchmark etc.
We will keep you posted!
Feedback is appreciated!
Within our InstantSpot system we implemented changes related to the today’s introduction of the flow-based CWE price settlement. The first delivery is 21 May. Since the number of allowed solutions is higher than in the traditional ATC approach the utilization of the border capacities will be higher.
This is visible for all affected borders: BE-FR, BE-NL, DE-FR and DE-NL. Taking an example of the Franco-German border, we see that the German export to France during the coming weekend is for the most hours exceeding the NTC.
The consequences are of interest, not only for the power flow itself, but also for the price picture. In general we can say that higher export to the more expensive France implies German prices to be forecasted on higher levels compared to the solution within the former ATC approach. The effect for France is opposite so that the price difference between these two markets is estimated to be lower after the introduction of the new flow-based solution.
We aim to include more details in our presentations, e.g. the FB constraints as they are reported by CASC. We will keep you posted!
See also the blog post from 18 May to get insight into the FB – ATC price statistics.
MKonline is proud to introduce daily videos on our pan-Europe Spot Price model which we labelled InstantSpot.
Until 26 February 2015 we issued written comments for Germany and Denmark every business day. However, the price formation in the price areas is increasingly affected by their neighbouring markets. The price formation is getting pan-European.
We have experienced that the price movers, cause and effects vary from day to day. Soon the price formation is becoming more complex.
We see the need for a broader view on price formation than what a written comment for individual areas can offer.
We therefore introduce a video report for the InstantSpot model. It is to be issued at least on a daily basis.
The aim is to show you the bigger picture. An experienced analyst will walk you through what he/she believes to be the most important topics at the moment.
MKonline will seek to cover what has changed since the last video update. Among other things, we will point out uncertainties and missing data from TSO.
The purpose of the video, that is about 3 minutes long, is to point you in the right direction. Remember, with a model that updates every 15 minutes you still need to follow the development yourself.
We believe the video will be a new and exciting way to follow the price formation and to get a better understanding of the price formation in your areas of interest.
Please be informed that we have added the NTC forecast for individual price areas to our Data Center.
Each file contains commercial import and export capacity for a price area and all its adjoining power markets. The figure illustrates that Germany runs exchange with 9 price areas. Therefore, the file contains 9*2=18 variables in total. It follows the update schedule for Instant Spot.
How to find the file
Simply use the search field in the Data Center. Type in NTC and the price area you are looking for.
Click here to see an example of how net transfer capacity is presented for Germany. If you do not have access, please apply for a free trial here.
Why add a forecast for NTC
TSOs are perceived to issue forecasts on NTC. However, operating the Instant Spot model since January 2013, we have noticed a wide array of flaws, errors, and pit falls in the provided numbers. The quality varies over time. For some borders the issued numbers are literally useless.
Therefore, we have established a new routine. A panel of analysts validates the capacity numbers each workday. Furthermore, we plan to issue comments on the NTC numbers.
MKonline keeps you posted.
MKonline features a calendar contest 1-23 December 2014. You participate simply by entering your guesstimate of the day ahead base spot price for 3 different price areas/countries. See right corner of MKonline’s Power section.
Please note that we have taken great care to safeguard your submitted information.
Every day we will change the price areas. In this way participating in the contest offers a splendid opportunity to get to know spot price areas in Europe, that you usually do not follow. We might put in areas as far apart as Portugal, Turkey and Finland on the same day. Few persons keep a keen eye on all price areas in Europe. Therefore, MKonline offers free access to Instant Spot for the duration of the calendar contest.
On 29th of August, we added a new overview page that connects the price and flow forecasts to the input variables in the InstantSpot model. We named it Price and Fundamentals.
The page is in its developing stage and more info will be added and inconsistencies will be cleared out. Feedback via mail or as comment on this page would be appreciated.
What sets this pages out is that we have calculated and forecasts Residual Production alongside price forecast.