We are proud to announce that we have extended our forecasts for weather and fundamentals to 32 days lead time. All forecasts are delivered with full ensemble.
For a test period this information is made available for free and embedded in the page Price 32 Days. See below for more details on where to find it.
About the forecasts
The new fundamental forecasts are powered by the ECMWF 32-day weather forecasts. Simply put, we translate the 32-day weather forecast for e.g temperatures, precipitation, wind speed, radiation, etc. into MWh/h for all weather driven variables. The underlying fundamental models are identical to the well-known models used on MKonline.
Where to find the 32-day forecasts
For a period, the new weather and fundamental forecasts will only be available on the pages where we provide price forecasts 32 days ahead. See the following examples NP, DE and PL. If you do not subscribe to MKonline.com, apply for a free trial here.
But of course, we plan to set up comprehensive presentations and make the data downloadable, in the same way we present the ECMWF 10- and 15-day lead time.
Please note that the data for the 32-day forecasts are downloadable directly from the graphs.
More than standard fundamentals
Beside the traditional weather driven fundamentals and weather, you will also find forecasts on power flow on these pages, as well as price forecasts.
All variables viewed together provide a unique insight and understanding of the fundamental balance and volatility as a function of weather, available transfer capacity and relative prices in Europe.
The page is updated every day. But please observe the nuances:
- Tuesday and Friday, at 05:20.
Updated weather forecasts from ECMWF are made available for us Tuesday and Friday morning. Hence, the web pages are updated with new weather, new fundamentals and finally new spot forecasts Tuesday and Friday at 05:20. A ticker will notify you.
- Daily update at 7:20
You will notice that the pages are updated every day. This is done to facilitate the inclusion of shifts in non-weather-driven variables into the price forecasts. Not that the Power Flow will shift on these updates, hence affecting the power balance.
What to expect
The 32-day forecast is still in its early utilisation. We plan to add pages for e.g. each variable, make the data available in easy-to-download files, benchmark etc.
We will keep you posted!
Feedback is appreciated!