Tag Archives: long term

LTP September 2016 edition

The September edition of MKonline’s Long-term price forecast for Nordic power is set for release on Thursday 15 September.

Focus areas in the September 2016 edition

  • Evaluation of Swedish renewables target 2021-2030, potential impact for nuclear capacity
  • Chinese cut in coal mining and coal-fired generation, consequences for coal price perspectives
  • Revised long term CO2 price expectations, mainly due to Europe’s progress in meeting its 2030 climate commitment

Continue reading LTP September 2016 edition

LTP Nordic 2016-2040 update on Tuesday 15 December

The December edition of MKonline’s Long Term Price Forecast for Nordic Power is set for release on Tuesday 15 December.

Main topics

  • Slowing Chinese economic growth affecting raw materials, fuels and commodities relevant for European power markets
  • Changedperspectives on coal and gas prices for European power markets
  • Simulated power prices five years ahead currently being significantly higher than market prices

Continue reading LTP Nordic 2016-2040 update on Tuesday 15 December

LTP Germany October 2015

The October edition of MKonline’s Long Term Price Forecast for Germany (LTP Germany) is set for release on Friday 30 October 2015.

The report deals with a wide range of topics. The key topics are:

  • Germany’s ability to reach its Energiewende targets
  • Power balance focussing on consumption, flow and fuel costs
  • Spot price expectations for the period 2016 – 2035
  • The feasibility of the recently proposed market design

Continue reading LTP Germany October 2015

LTP Nordic 2015-2040 update on Tuesday 15 September

The September edition of MKonline’s Long Term Price Forecast for Nordic Power is set for release on Tuesday 15 September.

Main topics

  • Oil price collapses having implications for the energy complex and industrial developments in Europe
  • Slowing Chinese economic growth affecting European energy markets, particularly coal market perspectives
  • Revised perspectives on impact on Nordic power consumption from electrification of transport sectors and data storage centers

Continue reading LTP Nordic 2015-2040 update on Tuesday 15 September

MKonline adds 32-day forecast of weather and fundamentals

We are proud to announce that we have extended our forecasts for weather and fundamentals to 32 days lead time. All forecasts are delivered with full ensemble.

For a test period this information is made available for free and embedded in the page  Price 32 Days. See below for more details on where to find it.

 About the forecasts

The new fundamental forecasts are powered by the ECMWF 32-day weather forecasts. Simply put, we translate the 32-day weather forecast for e.g temperatures, precipitation, wind speed, radiation, etc. into MWh/h for all weather driven variables. The underlying fundamental models are identical to the well-known models used on MKonline.

Where to find the 32-day forecasts

For a period, the new weather and fundamental forecasts will only be available on the pages where we provide price forecasts 32 days ahead. See the following examples NP, DE and PL. If you do not subscribe to MKonline.com,  apply for a free trial here.

But of course, we plan to set up comprehensive presentations and make the data downloadable, in the same way we present the ECMWF 10- and 15-day lead time.

Please note that the data for the 32-day forecasts are downloadable directly from the graphs.

More than standard fundamentals

Beside the traditional weather driven fundamentals and weather, you will also find forecasts on power flow on these pages, as well as price forecasts.

All variables viewed together provide a unique insight and understanding of the fundamental balance and volatility as a function of weather, available transfer capacity and relative prices in Europe.

Update Schedule

The page is updated every day. But please observe the nuances:

  • Tuesday and Friday, at 05:20.
    Updated weather forecasts from ECMWF are made available for us Tuesday and Friday morning. Hence, the web pages are updated with new weather, new fundamentals and finally new spot forecasts Tuesday and Friday at 05:20. A ticker will notify you.
  • Daily update at 7:20 
    You will notice that the pages are updated every day. This is done to facilitate the inclusion of shifts in non-weather-driven variables into the price forecasts. Not that the Power Flow will shift on these updates, hence affecting the power balance.

What to expect

The 32-day forecast is still in its early utilisation. We plan to add pages for e.g. each variable, make the data available in easy-to-download files, benchmark etc.
We will keep you posted!

Feedback is appreciated!

LTP Nordic 2015-2040 update on Tuesday 16 June

The June edition of MKonline’s Long Term Price Forecast for Nordic Power is set for release on Tuesday 16 June.

Topics

Major topics in the June update, having implications for the Nord Pool area:

  • Swedish nuclear reactors expected to be decommissioned earlier than previously planned
  • Further analysis of the UK long term power balance and new assessments of power flows from the Nordic countries to UK
  • Updated perspectives on coal prices

Continue reading LTP Nordic 2015-2040 update on Tuesday 16 June

LTP Nordic 2014-2035 update on Tuesday December 16th

The December edition of MKonline’s Long Term Price Forecast for Nordic Power is set for release on Tuesday 16 December.

Main updates in the December 2014 edition

  • Changes to our long term emission expectations, being strongly influenced by the 2030 climate and energy package
  • Possible new regulatory changes from the Norwegian Government might move new projects from Sweden to Norway within 2020
  • New transmission links, with focus on the effect of introducing a second cable link Norway-UK

About LTP

The service is aimed at professionals in need of a medium to long term view on the Nord Pool or adjoining power markets. Equity investors and macro analysts looking for updated information on markets, technological developments and changes in the political frame work will find this product time saving and cost efficient. The online product turns MKonline into a one-stop-shop for your long term market intelligence.

More information may be found on the product page.

If you have any questions, feel free to send an email to sales@mkonline.com or call us at +47 37 00 97 97.

Long Term Price Forecast – Germany 2015-2035

The October edition of MKonline’s Long Term Price Forecast for Germany (LTP Germany) is set for release on Friday 31 October.

Key topics in the October edition

  • Development of German power balance, including power consumption (energy efficiency, industrial development) and whether Energiewende targets can be reached
  • Price scenarios for German spot market for the period 2015-2035
  • Profound discussions about security of supply mechanisms, including capacity price indications

About MKonline’s LTP products

The service is aimed at professionals in need of a medium to long term view on power markets. Equity investors and macro analysts looking for updated information on markets, technological developments and changes in the political framework will find this product time saving and cost efficient. The online product turns MKonline into a one-stop-shop for your long term market intelligence.

More information may be found on the product page. If you have any questions, feel free to send an email to sales@mkonline.com or call us at +47 37 00 97 97.

Long Term Price Forecast – German Power release date March 3rd

MKonline’s first edition of Long Term Price Forecast for Electric Power in Germany is to be launched on Monday 3rd March 2014. The product is an online service for continuous updated long term fundamentals and price forecasts for the German power market.

Main topics in the current release

The Energiewende has the potential to completely reshape the supply side in the power mix in Germany. The report investigates in detail how the power balance over 2014 to 2030 could develop. High attention is put on production capacity to expire, what will expectedly take its place and how this is interlinked with the Energiewende targets.

Finally, based on the reported fundamental outlook, we provide a power price prognosis for the full period, 2014 to 2030. In this part emphasis is put on how fuel and EUA prices influence the power mix and price path.

Some keywords and questions discussed in this edition:

  • Fallout of Energiewende; what does it mean in terms of power balance?
  • Power consumption; development and composition
  • Nuclear phase-out; what type and amount of new capacity are needed?
  • Exchange capacity development; cold we see growth in both renewables and thermal?
  • Decommissioning of nuclear and thermal capacity; Could security of supply be jeopardized?

Information and price

Read more on the product page. If you have any questions, feel free to send us an email or call us at +47 37 00 97 97.